摘要
目的定量评估哈尔滨市日平均气温和可吸入颗粒物(PM_(10))、细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))对人群死亡影响的交互作用。方法收集2014—2016年哈尔滨市每日死亡资料,大气颗粒物中PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)等污染物浓度资料及气象资料,采用双变量反应平面模型以及温度分层法和分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)定性和定量评估大气颗粒物中PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)和日平均气温对哈尔滨市人群死亡影响的交互作用。结果双变量反应平面模型结果显示,日平均气温和大气颗粒物中PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)与人群死亡之间的关系存在交互作用,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。温度分层分析结果发现,高温时,累积滞后天数越长,PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)对日总死亡数的影响越大,当累积滞后12 d时,PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)每升高10μg/m^(3),日总死亡的累积相对危险度(CRR)分别增加10.4%(95%CI:2.7%~18.8%)和18.2%(95%CI:1.8%~37.1%);低温和中温时,未发现PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)与总死亡之间的关联具有统计学意义。与中温层相比,高温时PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)对死亡的影响更大,且差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。亚组分析结果显示,高温时,大气颗粒物对男性和65岁以上老年人群死亡的影响更大。结论气温和PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)对哈尔滨市人群死亡的影响具有交互作用,在高温时PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)对死亡的影响更大。
Objective To assess the interactions between the daily mean air temperature,inhalable particulate matter(PM_(10)),and fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))on mortality of people in Harbin,Heilongjiang province,China.Methods The daily mortality data,meteorological data,and atmospheric pollutants concentration data,including PM_(10),PM_(2.5),etc.in Harbin from 2014 to 2016 were collected.The distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)with quasi-Poisson link,bivariate response surface model,and stratified model were used to detect and measure the potential interactions between atmospheric particulate matter(PM_(10) and PM_(2.5))and air temperature on the daily mortality in Harbin.Results The bivariate response surface model showed that there were significant interactions between PM_(10),PM_(2.5) and air temperature on mortality(P<0.05).The stratified analysis showed that at high temperature,the longer the accumulative lag days,the greater the influence of PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) on the total daily mortality.When the accumulative lag was 12 d,the accumulative risks of the total daily mortality were increased to 10.4%(95%CI:2.7%-18.8%)and 18.2%(95%CI:1.8%-37.1%),respectively,with the increase of PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) by 10μg/m^(3).At low and moderate temperatures,no significant correlations between PM_(10)/PM_(2.5) and total mortality were found.Compared with the moderate temperature layer,PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) had significantly greater influence on the mortality at high temperature(P<0.05).A subgroup analysis showed that at high temperature,atmospheric particulate matter had a greater influence on the mortality of males and people over 65 years of age.Conclusion There are interactions between PM_(10),PM_(2.5) and air temperature on mortality of people in Harbin.At high temperature,PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) have greater influence on the risk of mortality.
作者
宋和佳
程义斌
李永红
张睿
汪子贤
张馨航
姚孝元
SONG Hejia;CHENG Yibin;LI Yonghong;ZHANG Rui;WANG Zixian;ZHANG Xinhang;YAO Xiaoyuan
出处
《环境卫生学杂志》
2021年第4期318-325,共8页
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HYGIENE
基金
国家科技基础资源调查专项(2017FY101201,2017FY101206)
国家科技重大专项(2017ZX10305501-009)。
