摘要
准确把握经济增长驱动因素与空间溢出效应,对于进一步理清城市相互关系、推动区域均衡发展具有重要的理论与实践意义。本文以长江三角洲、广东省为例,采用不均衡指数、地理集中度探析经济格局时空演变特征,并基于空间计量方法,对经济增长驱动因素与空间溢出效应进行对比研究。结果发现:(1)21世纪以来,伴随着对全国经济增长贡献的稳步提升,研究区域经济格局也呈现差异化演变态势,但"核心-边缘"格局均未明显改变。(2)空间计量结果表明,区域经济增长驱动因素存在显著差异,但经济增长均存在显著正向空间溢出效应,且长江三角洲空间溢出效应更强。(3)进一步的分解、对比表明,不同区域、不同时期经济增长驱动因素存在差异,空间溢出效应也表现为时间上的逐渐增强、空间上的核心区更强。基于距离变动的分析发现,研究区域经济增长空间溢出效应均呈现"倒U"型趋势。本研究有助于揭示研究区域城市间相互关系,也为推动区域一体化发展、合理引导城市群扩容等提供前瞻性参考。
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period(2021-2025),enhancing the radiation role of central cities and urban clusters will be an important measure to promote coordinated regional development.In this context,accurately exploring the driving factors of economic growth and spatial spillover effects is significantly important to understand relationships among cities and promote balanced regional development.Taking the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong province as examples,we utilized the imbalance index and geographic concentration to explore the spatio-temporal evolution of the economic pattern,and compared the driving factors and spatial spillover effects of economic growth based on the spatial econometric model.The main conclusions can be drawn as follows:(1)Since the beginning of the 21 st century,with the steady economic growth,the evolutions of the economic pattern of both study areas have presented differentiated characteristics,but the"core-edge"pattern of economic distribution showed strong stability.(2)The spatial econometric model results showed that there were significant differences in the driving factors of economic growth across different regions.Both study areas had significant positive spatial spillover effects of economic growth,but the spatial spillover effect in the Yangtze River Delta was stronger.(3)Further decomposition and comparison showed that there were differences in the driving factors of economic growth across different regions and periods in the study areas.The spatial spillover effects of both study areas’economic growth were higher in 2009-2017 compared with 2000-2008,and the spatial spillover effects of the core area were higher than those of the marginal area.The spatial spillover effects based on the change of geographic distance presented an"inverted U"trend,and the distance with the strongest spatial spillover effect in the Yangtze River Delta was significantly greater than that in Guangdong province,but the latter had a higher maximum spillover effect.This research provides an empirical reference for understanding the relationship of cities.It also tries to provide a theoretical basis for formulating scientific policies in order to promote integrated development and narrow regional development gaps.The results in this paper may offer a forward-looking reference for the integrated development of other urban agglomerations,and reasonably guide the expansion of urban agglomerations.
作者
闫东升
王玥
孙伟
李平星
YAN Dongsheng;WANG Yue;SUN Wei;LI Pingxing(Public Administration School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Modern Management Center,Shanghai 200052,China;Key Laboratory of Watershed Geography,Nanjing Institute of Geography Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China)
出处
《地理研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第11期3137-3153,共17页
Geographical Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41871209
42101183)
美丽中国生态文明建设科技工程专项(XDA23020102)
南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心重大项目(CYD-2020018)。
关键词
经济增长
驱动因素
空间溢出效应
对比
economic growth
driving factor
spatial spillover effect
comparison
