摘要
利用1980—2019年北疆38个县(市)出现的671次风灾事件灾情资料,选定每次风灾事件造成的死亡人数、倒塌房屋数、倒塌棚圈数、损坏大棚数、牲畜死亡数、受灾面积等6项灾情要素,采用多指标法综合考虑构建灾损指数及其等级。结果表明,空间上,博州、阿勒泰地区风灾最为频发,而风灾对北疆沿天山一带和阿勒泰地区造成的损失最重;时间上,北疆风灾主要集中在春夏季(3—8月),其中4—5月是发生频次最高的月份,近40年北疆风灾的发生次数和危害程度都呈现线型增长的趋势,且在2000年前后各级风灾发生次数和风灾危害程度先后出现大幅度增长,经检验发现在90年代末出现气候突变,增长速率和风灾级别呈反比。因此,每年4—5月博州、阿勒泰及北疆沿天山一带的风灾是北疆风灾风险最高的地区。该研究可为北疆地区的风灾防治提供科学依据。
Disaster damage index and disaster grades are constructed by using multi index method on the basis of overall consideration,based on the disaster data of 671 wind disasters taking place in 38 counties(cities) in Northern Xinjiang from 1980 to 2019,and by selecting six disaster factors including the death toll,the number of collapsed houses,the number of collapsed sheds,the number of damaged greenhouses,the number of livestock deaths and the affected area caused by each wind disaster event.The results show that in space,wind disasters are the most frequent in Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture and Altay Prefecture,and the losses caused by wind disasters are the most severe along Tianshan Mountain in Northern Xinjiang and Altay Prefecture.In terms of time,wind disasters in Northern Xinjiang are mainly concentrated in spring and summer(from March to August),of which April and May are the months with the highest frequency.In recent 40 years,the occurrence times and extent of harm of wind disasters in Northern Xinjiang have shown a linear growth trend;the occurrence times of wind disasters at various grades and the extent of harm have increased significantly during the years around 2000;it is found,upon examination,there was a sudden change of climate in the late 1990 s,and the increase rate is inversely proportional to the grade of wind disaster.Therefore,the wind disasters in Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture,Altay Prefecture and the area along Tianshan Mountain in Northern Xinjiang from April to may each year are the areas in Northern Xinjiang with the highest wind disaster risk.The study can provide scientific basis for wind disaster prevention and control in Northern Xinjiang.
作者
胡帆
王旭
HU Fan;WANG Xu(Weather Modification Office of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830002,China)
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第5期112-121,共10页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
天山试验区地形云作业背景及作业指标研究项目(RYSY201902)。
关键词
风灾
灾损指数
等级
时空分布
北疆
wind disasters
disaster damage index
grades
temporal and spatial distribution
Northern Xinjiang
