摘要
超大型沉井基础受尺寸巨大、地质条件复杂等因素影响,在施工阶段具有较高的安全及质量风险.为准确有效地实现大型锚碇沉井基础施工过程的风险评估,采用工作分解结构-风险分解结构(WBS-RBS),并结合专家调查法进行施工全过程风险识别;基于分解结构估测风险事件概率及损失等级从而确定初始风险分解矩阵,通过模糊层次分析(FAHP)法分析各类风险权重对其加权修正,并以修正风险矩阵值评估风险等级;采用该风险评估方法开展连镇铁路五峰山长江大桥北锚碇沉井基础施工风险评估.研究结果表明:基于WBS-RBS法及专家调查法识别出“井壁开裂”等158项风险源;逐项计算初始风险值、综合风险值权重,并按等级划分标准评估出修正风险值大于1.696的“沉井突沉”“几何偏斜”等重大风险源共16项;针对重大风险源提出施工专项方案、实时施工监控及风险预案等措施控制.为该沉井基础工程施工风险控制提供了依据,并为类似工程风险评估与控制提供借鉴.
Affected by factors such as huge size and complex geological conditions,the super-large anchorage caisson foundation has high quality and safety risks in the construction stage.In order to assess these risks accurately,the work breakdown structure-risk breakdown structure(WBS-RBS)method,combined with expert investigation,was used to identify risks in the whole construction process.Based on the breakdown structure,an initial risk breakdown matrix was determined by estimating probabilities and corresponding loss levels of risk events.By analyzing weights of all kinds of risks through fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP),the result of the risk breakdown matrix was revised.Finally,the risk levels were divided according to the revised risk matrix values.As a case study,the proposed method was applied to construction risk assessment of the north anchorage caisson foundation of Wufengshan Yangtze River Bridge in Lianyungang−Zhenjiang high-speed railway.The results reveal that 158 risk sources were identified by the WBS-RBS and expert investigation method.Based on calculation of initial risk values and comprehensive weights,16 major risk sources with the revised risk value larger than 1.696,such as caisson sudden sinking and attitude deviation were obtained according to the risk classification criterion.Besides,countermeasures such as special construction scheme,real-time construction monitoring,and reserved risk plan were provided.The research work provides a basis for the construction risk control of the open caisson foundation project and also provides a reference for the risk assessment and control of similar projects.
作者
施洲
刘东东
纪锋
冯传宝
SHI Zhou;LIU Dongdong;JI Feng;FENG Chuanbao(School of Civil Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China;Chinese Shanghai Railway Bureau Group Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 200142,China)
出处
《西南交通大学学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第6期1241-1249,共9页
Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University
基金
中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划重大课题(2017G006-A)。
关键词
沉井基础
风险识别
风险评估
专家调查法
分解结构
open caisson
risk identification
risk assessment
expert investigation
breakdown structure
