摘要
藏东南地区是我国海洋性冰川集中区、重大工程建设区和地质灾害易发区,高原地质灾害易发性评价是该区防灾减灾的重要技术基础和热点难点之一。本文考虑了气候变化和冰川积雪活动对高寒山区地质灾害形成发育的影响,引入了积温和冰川积雪消融量两个特色因子,提出了距平差气象插补法和冰川积雪消融量概化模型,并从孕灾环境、动力条件和人类扰动等方面共选取了13个因子,建立了藏东南地质灾害易发性评价指标体系,构建了证据权-投影寻踪模型,实现了灾害易发性评价计算、分级区划和精度验证。结果表明:(1)冰川积雪消融量和积温对高寒山区地质灾害易发性影响显著,其最佳向量值达0.088和0.579;(2)提出的距平差法气温插补模型对气温预测效果优于平均值法和线性插值法,可有效解决气象数据缺失和插补值被放大的问题;(3)大部分研究区为中度及以上灾害易发区,占总面积的65.98%,其中极高易发区集中在深大活动断裂带和干流水系两侧2 km区域内,高易发区集中在干流水系两侧2~5 km的近似环状区域,中易发区主要分布在峡谷和干流水系两侧5~10 km地带以及大江大河的支流区域;(4)建立的证据权-投影寻踪模型能更好地实现研究区地质灾害易发性评价,其成功率曲线检验值达0.884,具有较好实用性。本研究成果可以丰富区域地质灾害易发性评价理论和方法,并为藏东南地区地质灾害易发性的客观快速评价提供借鉴和参考。
Southeast Tibet is a concentrated area of marine glaciers,a major engineering construction area and an area prone to geological hazards in China.The susceptibility evaluation of plateau geological hazards is one of the important technical bases and hot issues for hazards prevention and mitigation in this area.In this paper,considering the impact of climate change and glacier snow activities on the formation and development of geological hazards in alpine mountainous areas,two characteristic factors such as the accumulated temperature and the glacier snow melting amount were introduced,and the distance adjustment meteorological interpolation method and the generalized model of glacier snow ablation amount were proposed respectively.Then,thirteen factors were selected from the aspects of hazard-developing environment,dynamic conditions and human disturbance,and the susceptibility evaluation index system of geological hazards in Southeast Tibet was established.Finally,the evidence weight-projection pursuit model was constructed to realize the susceptibility evaluation calculation,classification zoning and accuracy verification of geological hazards in study area.The results show that:(1)Accumulated temperature and glacier snow melting amount had a significant impact on the susceptibility of geological hazards in alpine mountainous areas,with the optimal vector values of 0.088 and 0.579.(2)The proposed temperature interpolation model based on the distance adjustment method was better than the average method and the linear interpolation method for temperature prediction,which can effectively solve the problems of missing meteorological data and amplification of interpolation values.(3)Most of the study areas were located in moderate and above geo-hazard susceptibility zones,accounting for 65.98%of the total area,the extremely high-susceptibility zones were concentrated within the area of 2 km on both sides of the deep active faults and the main stream systems,the high-susceptibility zones were concentrated in the approximate ring-shape area of 2~5 km on both sides of the main stream system and the moderate-susceptibility zones were mainly distributed in the area of 5~10 km on both sides of the canyon and the main stream system as well as the tributaries of large rivers.(4)The established evidence weight-projection pursuit model could better realize the susceptibility evaluation of geological hazards in the study area,and its success rate curve test value reached 0.884,which was of good practicability.The research results enrich the theory and method of regional geological disaster susceptibility evaluation,and provide reference for objective and rapid evaluation of geological disaster susceptibility in Southeast Tibet.
作者
韩用顺
孙湘艳
刘通
陈勇国
HAN Yongshun;SUN Xiangyan;LIU Tong;CHEN Yongguo(School of Resource Environment and Safety,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,Hunan China;Surveying and Land Information Engineering,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454000,Henan China;School of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Hunan University of Science and Engineering,Yongzhou 425199,Hunan China)
出处
《山地学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第5期672-686,共15页
Mountain Research
基金
湖南省自然科学基金(2020JJ4295)
交通运输部科技计划项目(2015-316-T19-060)
湖南省普通高等学校教学改革研究项目(HNJG-2020-0481)。
关键词
地质灾害
易发性评价
指标体系
证据权-投影寻踪模型
藏东南
geological disaster
susceptibility evaluation
index system
evidence weight-projection pursuit model
Southeast Tibet
