摘要
消费者通常会预测活动花费的时间,已有研究主要探讨消费者如何预测活动的持续期,但尚不明晰消费者在持续期内如何预测活动的投入时间。探讨影响消费者在持续期内预测投入时间的持续期表述单位和应答格式两个因素,基于时间分配视角,将消费者预测时间的格式分为时间量格式和次数量格式两类。基于粒度效应和锚定调整理论,通过3个实验验证持续期表述单位和应答格式对消费者时间预测的交互作用,运用Bootstrap中介分析法探讨感知信心在这一交互过程中的中介作用。研究结果表明,当以时间量作为时间预测问题的应答格式时,与以粗略型单位(如1个月)表述持续期相比,精细型单位(如30天)表述持续期能降低消费者的感知信心,从而使消费者预测自己投入的时间更少;当以次数量作为时间预测问题的应答格式时,与以精细型单位表述持续期相比,粗略型单位表述持续期能降低消费者的感知信心,从而使消费者预测自己投入的次数和投入的时间都更少。此外,在投入时间一定的情况下,按照不同的持续期表述单位和应答格式进行时间分配影响消费者对目标活动的参与意愿。当以时间量作为时间分配的重点时,与以精细型单位表述持续期相比,以粗略型单位表述持续期促进消费者的参与意愿;而当以次数量作为时间分配的重点时,与以粗略型单位表述持续期相比,以精细型单位表述持续期促进消费者的参与意愿。在理论层面上,研究成果有助于更全面地了解与时间相关的情景因素如何影响消费者对时间的预测;在实践层面上,研究成果有助于企业为产品或服务设计有针对性的时间分配方式。
Consumers always predict how much time they will spend on the target activities.The existing research has widely discussed how consumers predict the duration of a target activity,how consumers predicting their time on the target activity over a particular duration remains a question.This study evaluates the two factors that affect the time prediction of consumers:duration unit and response format,and from the perspective of time allocation,the consumers′time prediction are separated into two categories,namely time quantity format(such as the minutes consumer expect to spend on the target activities in a particular duration)and quantity format(such as the frequency consumers expect to participate in the target activity in a particular duration).Based on the granularity effect and anchoring and adjustment theory,three experiments are implemented to demonstrate the interaction of duration unit and response format on consumers′time prediction.Through bootstrap mediation analysis,this research analyzes the mediating effect of perceived confidence in this interaction.Our finding indicates that when the quality of time is used as the response format,compared with the duration which is described in a rough unit(e.g.1 month),if consumer predict how much time they will spend in a duration which is expressed in a fine unit(e.g.30 days),they will perceived lower confidence in this progress,and they will predict that they will spend less time on the target activity.Oppositely,when the frequency is used as the response format,compared with the duration which is expressed in a fine unit,the rough unit of duration will decrease consumers′perceived confidence,and consumers predict that they will decrease the frequency and spend less time on the target activity in the duration.In addition,when consumers should spend the same time on a target activity,the time allocation which is based on different duration unit and response format will affect consumers′willingness to participate.Specifically,when time allocation focusing on the time quantity,compared with the fine unit of duration,the expression of duration in rough unit promotes consumers′willingness to accept the target activity.Nevertheless,when time allocation focusing on the frequency,the expression of duration in fine unit promotes consumers′willingness to participate,compared with the rough unit.Theoretically,this study helps to understand time-related situational factors which will influence consumers′time prediction comprehensively.Practically,these findings provide important implications for companies to allocate time appropriately for particular products or services.
作者
李东进
唐丽莎
张宇东
贾培培
LI Dongjin;TANG Lisha;ZHANG Yudong;JIA Peipei(Business School,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;Business College,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330022,China)
出处
《管理科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第4期124-135,共12页
Journal of Management Science
基金
国家自然科学基金(71832005,71772092,71702127)。
关键词
时间预测
持续期表述单位
应答格式
粒度效应
感知信心
time prediction
duration presentation unit
response format
granularity effects
perceived confidence
