摘要
为了研究对口支援的宏观经济效应及作用机制,本文将对口支援分解为公共消费支出、公共投资支出、全要素生产率以及横向财政转移四个外生冲击,引入到一个包含家庭、厂商以及地方政府的动态随机一般均衡模型中。根据数值模拟分析,本文提出了两个关于对口支援的研究假说:一是对口支援在一定时间内推动了受援地经济持续增长;二是对口支援主要通过增加固定资产投资和带动劳动力产业间转移两大途径推动受援地经济持续增长。为了验证这两个假说,本文将新一轮对口援疆作为对口支援的一个特例,利用2006—2015年中国县级单位的面板数据通过双重差分法进行实证研究。研究结果基本验证了本文的假说。
To study the macro economic effect and functional mechanism of partner assistance,this paper divides partner assistance into the four exogenous shocks of public consumption spending,public investment spending,TFP and horizontal fiscal transfers,and introduces them into a DSGE model containing households,firms and local government.By numerical simulation,this paper puts forward two hypothesis on partner assistance:(1)partner assistance has positive effects on the local sustainable economic growth during a period of time(2)partner assistance promotes the growth mainly by increase of investment in fixed assets and inter-industry labor transfer and.To test the hypothesis,this paper takes the new-round partner assistance to Xinjiang as a special case,adopts the panel data of counties in China in 2006-2015,and uses DID method for empirical research.The result of empirical research basically verifies the hypothesis.
作者
林繁
王谨
LIN Fan;WANG Jin
出处
《经济论坛》
2021年第12期115-130,共16页
Economic Forum
