摘要
随着中国融入全球价值链的程度持续加深,进口中间品价格波动的传导成为产业经济研究的重要内容.考虑到中国的贸易特点是存在大量的加工贸易,建立了区分加工贸易的投入产出进口中间品价格传导模型,基于2012年中国区分加工贸易的非竞争型投入产出表,模拟了各类进口中间品价格变化对中国各部门价格的影响.考虑到传统模型无法反映普遍存在的价格传导时滞,建立了进口中间品价格传导的离散时间状态迭代方程.结果显示,矿产开采类和电气电子类进口中间品对国内产品价格的影响最大,前者由于涉及的生产链较长,会对下游部门产生广泛影响,导致国内市场整体价格的波动会延续较长时间;后者对国内电气电子部门的影响尤为显著,价格会在第6周和第12周有较明显的波动.
With the deepening of China?s integration into the global value chain,the transmission of the price fluctuations of imported intermediate goods has become an important part of industrial economic research.Considering the fact that China*s trade is characterized by a large amount of processing trade,this paper establishes an input-output price transmission model of imported intermediates capturing processing trade.Based on the non-competitive input-output table capturing processing trade of China in 2012,this paper simulates the impact of price changes of various imported intermediates on the prices of various sectors in China.Furthermore,considering that the traditional price model cannot reflect the common price transmission time lag,a discrete time state iterative equation is built.Results show that the imported intermediates of mineral mining and electrical and electronic goods have the largest impact on domestic price level.The former,due to its long production chain involved,has a wide impact on the downstream sectors,resulting in overall price fluctuations in the domestic market for a long period of time.The impact of the latter on the domestic electrical and electronic sector is particularly significant,with obvious price fluctuations in the 6th week and 12th week.
作者
徐然
高翔
杨翠红
XU Ran;GAO Xiang;YANG Cui-hong(Academy of Mathematics and System Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Key Laboratory of Management,Decision and Information Systems,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)
出处
《管理科学学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第10期12-21,共10页
Journal of Management Sciences in China
基金
国家自然科学基金基础科学中心资助项目(71988101)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71673269)
国家社会科学基金重大资助项目(19ZDA062).
关键词
价格传导
投入产出模型
加工贸易
时滞
price transmission
input-output model
processing trade
time lag
