摘要
利率传导是货币政策传导的重要渠道。本文选取1996-2020年的数据建立VAR模型,利用脉冲响应函数与方差分解研究我国利率市场化进程中货币政策利率传导机制的变化。实证结果表明:利率市场化使得货币政策利率传导渠道发生了根本性变化,市场利率传导渠道有效性不断增强,宏观经济对市场利率的调节愈发敏感;2016-2020年,相比于M2,市场利率对产出和通货膨胀的解释能力更强,货币政策中介目标应渐进地由"数量型"逐步转为"价格型"。最后,本文认为,要继续推进利率市场化改革,完善存款利率自律机制,积极推动LPR形成和传导机制的相关改革,货币政策实施要灵活精准、合理适度,从而促进金融市场高质量发展。
Interest rate transmission is an important channel for monetary policy conduction. This paper selection of 1996 to 2020 data established a VAR model, using the pulse response function and the variance decomposition to study the changes in the interest rate conduction mechanism of China’s interest rate marketization process. Empirical results show that interest rate marketization has caused fundamental changes in the tariff of monetary policy interest rate, and the effectiveness of market interest rate conduction channels is constantly enhanced. The macroeconomic economy is more sensitive to market interest rates;2016-2020, compared to M2, market Interest rates are stronger for output and inflation, and the monetary policy intermediary target should be gradually turned from "quantity" to "price". Finally, this paper believes that we must continue to promote interest rate marketization reform, improve the self-discipline mechanism of deposit interest rates, and actively promote the relevant reforms of LPR formation and conduction mechanism, and the implementation of monetary policy is flexible and accurate, thus promoting the high quality development of financial markets.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2021年第8期136-140,187,共6页
Price:Theory & Practice
关键词
利率市场化改革
货币政策框架
市场利率传导
存款利率自律机制
interest rate marketization reform
monetary policy framework
market interest rate conduction
deposit interest rate self-discipline mechanism
