摘要
在"一带一路"倡议和"中蒙俄经济走廊"建设的背景下,研究俄罗斯西伯利亚与远东联邦区的人口收缩有着重要意义。利用人口收缩类型判断、人口收缩影响因素等模型,探讨21世纪以来西伯利亚与远东区人口收缩的空间格局与影响因素,研究表明:(1)西伯利亚与远东区的人口变化整体表现出"普遍收缩伴随着短期局部增长"的特征,86%的联邦主体处于人口收缩态势,西伯利亚区人口收缩受国际金融危机等外部冲击影响大,远东区人口收缩更多地由其城市周期性规律等内在因素决定。(2)多数联邦主体的人口收缩隶属于中心袭夺型、空心衰减型、资源萎缩型;从收缩的时间维度看,阿尔泰共和国、图瓦共和国、新西伯利亚州是无收缩联邦主体,托木斯克州、萨哈(雅库特)共和国、布里亚特共和国为阶段性收缩联邦主体,其余联邦主体为持续性收缩联邦主体。(3)空间上,西伯利亚与远东区的人口收缩强度呈"东高西低"的分异格局,形成了较为显著的"H"形人口收缩带,其人口收缩主要受经济动力不足、地方财政困难、社会基础设施落后、从业人口下降与老龄化加重等因素影响。
Under the background of"the Belt and Road Initiative"and the China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor,this paper studied the pattern and influencing factors of population shrinkage in Siberian and Far East Federal Districts in Russia.Firstly,this paper calculated the population shrinkage degree with regard to the time trace and spatial differentiation aspects of Siberian and Far East Federal Districts in 2002-2017.Secondly,the influencing factors identification of the population shrinkage of the Siberian and Far East Federal Districts was performed by using influencing factors model of population shrinkage.The results are as following:1)Both the demographic changes in Siberian and Far East Federal Districts have been universally contracting with short-term locally growing,but 86% of the federal subjects are in a state of population shrinking.The population shrinkage is affected by external shocks such as the international financial crisis in Siberian Federal District,and it is determined by the internal factors such as the periodical variation of city in Far East Federal District.2)The types of population shrinkage are central attack type,hollow attenuation type and resource-shrinkage type respectively.The population number of Republic of Altay,Republic of Tyva,and Novosibirsk Region was increased from 2002 to 2017.The population number of Tomsk Region,Republic of Sakha(Yakutia),and Republic of Buryatia showed the trend of short-term locally growing from 2002 to 2017.In 2002-2017,it showed decreasing characteristic in Altay Territory,Kemerovo Region,Irkutsk Region,Primorsky Territory,Omsk Region,Khabarovsk Territory,Amur Region,Krasnoyarsk Territory,Zabaikalsk Territory,Sakhalin Region,Kamchatka Territory,Magadan Region,Jewish Autonomous Area,Republic of Khakasia and Chukotka Autonomous Area.3)From the perspective of space,the population shrinking degree of the whole area(Siberian and Far East Federal Districts)shows a"high value in the east,lower in the west"spatial pattern,which in general displays a population shrinkage tendency of Hshape.It’s found that the population shrinkage is affected by the insufficient economic power,weak financial capitals,poor social infrastructure,sharp decreasing working population and aggravated ageing population.
作者
初楠臣
张平宇
吴相利
李鹤
杨奇峰
李寒竹
CHU Nanchen;ZHANG Pingyu;WU Xiangli;LI He;YANG Qifeng;LI Hanzhu(College of Geographical Sciences,Harbin Normal University,Harbin 150025,Heilongjiang,China;Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology,Chinese Academy Sciences,Changchun 130102,Jilin,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;College of Geography and Marine Sciences,Yanbian University,Yanji 133002,Jilin,China)
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第11期1-8,共8页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42101165、42071162)
中国博士后科学基金项目(2021M693817)
黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目(21JLC201)。
关键词
人口收缩类型
人口收缩格局
人口收缩因素
西伯利亚联邦区
远东联邦区
俄罗斯
population shrinkage types
population shrinkage pattern
population shrinkage factors
Siberian Federal District
Far East Federal District
Russia
