摘要
针对高后果系统无法开展系统级的安全试验等问题,美国桑迪亚国家实验室提出基于丧失确定性安全概率(Probability of loss of assured safety,PLOAS)的安全性评估方法,即在异常环境下,不去评估系统出现事故的概率,而是评估确保系统安全的相关措施失效的概率,由于这些措施的失效分布容易试验验证,因此具有更高的预测性和可信度。目前,PLOAS已成为美军核武器安全性评估的重要方法。本文简介了PLOAS产生背景和基本原理,从温度/时间相关系统中的PLOAS模型、PLOAS中的认知不确定性研究等方面总结了PLOAS的发展历程,并分析了PLOAS的发展趋势,指出认知不确定性、与QMU的结合应用、PLOAS对高后果系统安全性设计的指导方法和PLOAS方法的推广应用是当前的研究重点。
In order to solve the problem that the high consequence system can not carry out system level safety test,Sandia National Laboratory of the United States proposed a safety evaluation method based on probability of loss of assured safety(PLOAS),which is not to evaluate the probability of system accidents,but to evaluate the failure probability of relevant measures to ensure system safety in abnormal environment.Because the failure distribution of these measures is easy to test and verify,it has higher predictability and credibility.At present,PLOAS has become an important method for US military nuclear weapon safety evaluation.The background and basic principle of PLOAS was introduced,the development process of PLOAS from the aspects of model developing in temperature/time dependent system and cognitive uncertainty research in PLOAS was summarized,and the development trend of PLOAS was analyzed,and the focus of the research including cognitive uncertainty,the combination with QMU,PLOAS for safety design of high consequence system,and the popularization and application of PLOAS method were pointed out.
作者
李彪
郭明
吴飞
Li Biao;Guo Ming;Wu Fei(Institute of nuclear science and technology,Naval Engineering University,Wuhan,Hubei 430030,China)
出处
《核安全》
2021年第6期88-93,共6页
Nuclear Safety
基金
“十三五”装备预研项目,项目编号:41426030107。
