摘要
预期是影响人们经济行为的重要因素,利用中国家庭追踪调查数据,研究居民房价预期的邻里传导效应,研究结果表明:居民房价预期存在显著的邻里效应,即邻里对房价的预期影响居民个体对房价的预期,且这种影响是同方向的。房价预期的邻里传导效应在不同认知水平的个体之间存在差异,随着居民个体认知能力的提升,传导效应相应减弱。同时,信息渠道的拓展降低了居民个体房价预期的邻里传导效应,相较于电视传媒,互联网的替代作用更大。子样本研究表明,房价预期的邻里效应在城乡居民和高低年龄段居民中均显著存在。上述结论在运用工具变量法和控制各种影响因素后依然稳健,对可能影响本文结论的群分效应和同城效应进行检验之后,得到的结果进一步支持了本文结论。
Expectation is an important factor affecting people’s economic behavior.Using the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),this paper studies the neighborhood conductive effect on residents’house price expectations.The results show that residents’house price expectations present a significant neighborhood conductive effect,that is,the neighbors’house price expectations affects the individual residents’house price expectations,and this influence is positively related.The neighborhood effect on house price expectations is different among individuals with different cognitive levels.With the improvement of residents’individual cognitive ability,the effect decreases accordingly.At the same time,the expansion of information channels reduces the neighborhood conductive effect on the individual residents’house price expectations,and the substitutive effect of the Internet is greater than that of TV media.The sub sample study shows that the neighborhood conductive effect of house price expectations exists significantly among the suburban residents and all age groups.The findings above are still robust after the research using the instrumental variable method and controlling various influencing factors.After testing the cluster effect and intra-city effect that may influence the findings of this paper,the results further support the conclusion of this paper.
作者
陈淑云
陈伟鸿
Chen Shuyun;Chen Weihong(School of Economics and Business Administration,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079;CPC Zhongshan Party School,Zhongshan 528403)
出处
《华中师范大学学报（人文社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第1期52-62,共11页
Journal of Central China Normal University:Humanities and Social Sciences
基金
2019年教育部哲学与社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“建立健全住房基础性制度和房地产市场平稳健康发展长效机制研究”(19JZD012)。
关键词
住房价格
预期传导
邻里效应
housing price
conduction of expectations
neighborhood effect
