摘要
次生舆情往往伴随原生舆情产生,两种信息共同存在。考虑到次生舆情对原生舆情传播过程的影响,基于传统SEIR构建了次生舆情影响下的舆情传播模型,并通过实验仿真研究了次生舆情对原生舆情传播过程的影响和两种信息共存条件下政府干预行为的作用。结果表明,模型能较好地模拟两种舆情交织传播的过程,存在次生舆情的环境下,舆情会到达更大的峰值,且持续时间更长。如果政府及时采取有效的干预措施不仅能够降低舆情峰值,还可以延缓网络舆情的爆发,为舆情管理部门争取更多时间。
Secondary public opinion is often generated with the original public opinion,and two kinds of information coexist.Considering the influence of secondary public opinion on the process of dissemination of primary public opinion,a public opinion dissemination model that considers the influence of secondary public opinion is constructed based on the traditional SEIR model,and the influence of secondary public opinion on the dissemination process of primary public opinion and the role of government intervention under the coexistence of two kinds of information are studied through experimental simulation.The results show that the model can better simulate the process of interweaving and spreading two kinds of public opinion.In an environment with secondary public opinion,public opinion will reach a larger peak and last longer.If the government takes effective intervention measures in a timely manner,it can not only reduce the peak of public opinion but also delay the outbreak of online public opinion and seek more time for the public opinion management department.
作者
江长斌
李汾萦
张瑶源
王周阳
任天宇
JIANG Changbin;LI Fenying;ZHANG Yaoyuan;WANG Zhouyang;REN Tianyu
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》
2021年第6期580-587,592,共9页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(19BSH013).
关键词
原生舆情
次生舆情
传染病模型
舆情传播
政府干预
original public opinion
secondary public opinion
epidemic model
public opinion propagation
government intervention
