摘要
产量差表征粮食增产空间,缩减产量差是提高粮食产量的重要途径,解析产量差限制因子为探索产量差缩减路径、提高粮食产量提供依据。本文基于江苏省2000—2018年地市统计数据,借助边界线分析法定量分析粮食生产限制因子对产量差的贡献率,并解析限制性因子最适值。结果表明:江苏省耕地平均产量差占到最高产量和平均产量的比例分别为23.47%和64.05%,表明粮食产量具有较高的提升空间;苏南、苏中和苏北地区产量差的关键限制性因素分别为复种指数、劳动力和单产;江苏省粮食复种指数为1.6、机械总动力为5.3 kW/hm^(2)、施肥强度为487.64 kg/hm^(2)时粮食产量最高,是粮食生产要素投入最适值,其中施肥量超出施肥警戒线,表明江苏省农业施肥利用效率低下;转化产量差可实现苏南、苏中和苏北粮食增产30.30%、17.73%和21.45%,同时对耕地的需求量减少8.80%、13.38%和9.02%。因此,提出增加耕地复种规模,改善农业生产条件,政府加强对农户施肥指导以及提高机械化水平等缩减江苏省粮食产量差,促进粮食可持续生产和保障粮食安全的政策建议。
Yield gap reflects the increasing room for grain production and reducing the gap is an important way to increase grain yield.Analyzing the constraint factors of the yield gap can provide guidance for reducing yield gap and increasing grain output.Based on the statistical data of cities in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2018 and applying the boundary line analysis method,this paper analyzed the contribution rates and the optimal values of constraint factors.Results show that:1) the average yield gap of grain production accounts for 23.47% and 64.05% of the sample’s highest yield and the average yield,respectively,indicating that there is a large room for improvement in grain yield in Jiangsu Province;2) the key constraint factors for the yield gap include the multiple crop index,labor,and grain yields in southern,central,and northern Jiangsu;3) the grain output is the highest when the multiple crop index is 1.6,the total mechanical power is 5.3 kW/hm^(2),and the fertilization intensity is 487.64 kg/hm^(2),which are the optimal value of factors of grain production.In addition,the fertilization intensity exceeds the warning line of fertilization,indicating that the agricultural fertilization efficiency is low in Jiangsu Province;and 4) it can increase grain yield by 30.30%,17.73%,and 21.45%,while reducing the demand for farmland by 8.80%,13.38% and 9.02% by converting yield gap in southern,central and northern Jiangsu,respectively.Therefore,to reduce the gap in grain output,to promote sustainable grain production,and to ensure grain security in Jiangsu Province,this paper provides the following policy suggestions:increasing the scale of multiple cropping of farmland,improving agricultural production conditions,strengthening the guidance of proper fertilizer application,and improving the level of mechanization.
作者
孙涛
郭杰
欧名豪
SUN Tao;GUO Jie;OU Ming-hao(College of Land Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210095,China;State and Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Rural Land Resources Utilization and Consolidation,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210095,China;China Resources&Environment and Development Academy,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210095,China)
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第6期1037-1047,共11页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家重点研发计划重点专项项目(2018YFD1100103)
国家自然科学基金项目(71774086)。
关键词
限制因子
边界线分析
产量差
贡献率
最适值
constraint factors
boundary analysis
yield gap
contribution rate
optimal value
