摘要
外出务工返乡农民被认为是解决中国"谁来种地"、提高中国农业组织化程度的重要希望,政府也在大力宣传、引导外出务工返乡农民投身农业并引领合作社等新型经营主体发展。本文基于新迁移经济学等理论,利用具有全国代表性的粮食种植业职业农民的大样本数据,运用二元模型、双重稳健模型、匹配模型和多元定序模型等计量方法,分析了外出务工对农民成为合作社负责人的影响。结果表明,在粮食种植业职业农民中,外出务工返乡农民占比为23.66%,合作社负责人占比为24.59%。外出务工返乡农民中合作社负责人的占比为34.65%,没有外出务工的农民中合作社负责人的占比为21.47%,两者相差约13个百分点。计量分析结果表明,相比没有外出务工的农民,外出务工返乡农民成为合作社负责人的概率要显著高出约6个百分点,即调查样本中外出务工返乡农民要比其他农民成为合作社负责人的概率高出近1/4,这证实了外出务工对农民成为合作社负责人的正向促进作用。外出务工通过人力资本提升、农业生产投入和政府政策支持三个方面促使返乡农民工更可能成为合作社负责人。因此,在当前农业转型阶段,政府一方面应鼓励人力资本水平较低的青年农民外出就业,通过务工积累个人资本;另一方面,应大力吸引并帮助优秀的返乡农民工投身农业和乡村振兴事业,发挥他们更多的引领带动作用。
Returning rural migrants are a vital force to solve the problem of “who will produce grains in China” and to improve the organizational degree of China’s agriculture.The government is also vigorously publicizing and guiding migrant workers to return to their hometowns to engage in agriculture and to lead new agricultural cooperatives.Based on a large sample of national professional grain farmers in 2017 and applying the theory of new migration economics,this paper examined the impacts of non-farm work experience of rural migrants on their returning and becoming leaders of agricultural cooperatives by the binary models,the double robust modes,the multi-ordered models,the matching models,and other econometric models.Descriptive analysis shows that among all professional grain farmers,return migrants account for 23.66%,and leaders of agricultural cooperatives account for 24.59%.Among those returning migrant workers,34.65% of those with non-farm work experiences serve as the leaders of agricultural cooperatives,while only 21.47% of those without non-farm work experiences serve as the leaders of agricultural cooperatives.Empirical estimation results show that compared with farmers without non-farming employment experiences,the probability of those with non-farming employment experiences being leaders of agricultural cooperatives is significantly higher by 6%.Returning migrant workers are nearly 1/4 more likely to be leaders of agricultural cooperative than theircounterparts.The paper finds evidence of positive effect of non-farming work experience on being leaders of agricultural cooperatives.The mechanism analysis shows the improvement in human capital,agricultural production input,andgovernment policy support are keys to incentivize returning migrant workers to become leaders of agricultural cooperatives.The government should encourage young farmers with low levels of human capital to go out for non-farming employment and accumulate personal capital through non-farm employment.The government should also attractand help returning migrant workers to better engage in agriculture and rural vitalization by playing their leading roles.
作者
曾俊霞
龙文进
郜亮亮
ZENG Jun-xia;LONG Wen-jin;GAO Liang-liang(Rural Development Institute,Chinese Academy of Social Science,Beijing 100732,China;College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第6期1093-1103,共11页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(17BJY010)
中央农业广播电视学校(农业农村部农民科技教育培训中心)农民素质发展追踪调查。
关键词
外出务工
返乡农民工
合作社
职业农民
粮食种植
non-farm work experience
returning migrant workers
agricultural cooperatives
professional farmers
grain production
