摘要
2021年,中国天然气市场需求呈现高速增长的态势,主要是因为2020年下游用气需求受到疫情影响不能完全释放、在碳达峰和碳中和目标约束下2021年能源结构调整加速,以及全球疫情下中国作为世界制造中心工业生产负荷走高。2022年,中国天然气市场受全球疫情、国际液化天然气价格、中国能源转型政策影响仍具有不确定性。预计2022年中国天然气市场需求量在3834亿~3886亿立方米,与上年相比增量为260亿~312亿立方米。根据资源供应潜力,国产气仍保持较好增长势头,进口液化天然气增量大于进口管道气,全年可供市场量为3906亿立方米,资源富余能力不足2%,市场将处于紧平衡状态,在用气高峰时存在供应紧张的风险。建议在加强储气设施能力建设的基础上,做好储气调峰气量的落实工作,加强"最后一公里"管道建设,创新天然气购销交接模式,保障中国天然气市场用气需求的安全供应。
It is shown that China’s domestic natural gas demand in 2021 has been growing rapidly,mainly because downstream gas demand in 2020 did not be fully released due to the impact of the pandemic,the energy structure adjustment accelerates in 2021 under the constraints of"carbon peak and carbon neutrality",and industrial load went high continuously as China became world manufacturing center under the global pandemic. In 2022,domestic natural gas market will still be affected by the global pandemic,international LNG prices,and domestic energy transition policies. It is estimated that domestic natural gas demand will be 383.4 Bcm to 388.6 Bcm in 2022,a year-on-year increase of 26 Bcm to 31.2 Bcm. According to the supply potential,growth trend for domestic gas production,more incremental of LNG imports than pipeline gas imports,the annual available supply to the market is 390.6 Bcm and the resource surplus capacity is less than 2%. The market will be in a state of tight balance and there is a risk of tight supply during peak gas consumption. It is recommended to strengthen the construction of gas storage facilities,improve implementation of gas storage and peak-adjustment,strengthen the construction of the"last mile"pipeline,innovate the transfer mode of natural gas purchase and sale,and ensure the safe supply of gas demand in China’s natural gas market.
作者
张洪亮
方博涛
李雪菲
车晓波
ZHANG Hongliang;FANG Botao;LI Xuefei;CHE Xiaobo(Caofeidian Suntien Liquefied Natural Gas Co.,Ltd.;Sinopec Gas Company North China Natural Gas Sales Center;BSC Energy Consulting Co.,Ltd.)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2021年第12期44-52,共9页
International Petroleum Economics
关键词
供需形势
天然气市场
需求预测
紧平衡
资源供应
2022年
supply and demand situation
natural gas market
demand forecast
tight balance
resource supply
2022
