摘要
江苏省碳排放总量长期位居全国前五,分析其碳达峰路径对中国2030年实现碳达峰目标具有重要意义。本文通过聚类分析选取四个重点排放行业,构建扩展的STIRPAT模型分析江苏省行业碳排放影响因素,进而运用情景分析和Logistic模型对2019—2030年江苏省重点行业碳排放进行预测。结果表明:人口、城镇化率、人均GDP、产业结构、固定资产投资对江苏省重点行业碳排放量均有显著的正向作用,单位产量(周转量)能耗对碳排放的影响存在行业差异,降低单位产量(周转量)能耗和减少固定资产投资能够显著降低行业碳排放,重点行业碳排放在2030年接近达峰。江苏省应该采取行业针对性政策,推进清洁能源替代或技术更新,稳步推进产业绿色转型,避免对高排放行业采取“一刀切”。
Jiangsu Province's total carbon emissions have long been among the top five in China.Its path to carbon emissions peak is of great significance to China's achievement of carbon peak in 2030.The study takes Jiangsu Province as the research subject.We select 4 key emission industries through cluster analysis in Jiangsu Province,establish an extended STIRPAT model to analyze influencing factors,and then use Scenario analysis and Logistic model to predict industrial carbon emissions from 2019 to 2030.The results show that population,urbanization rate,per capita GDP,industrial structure and investment have a significant positive effect on industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province;the impact of energy consumption per unit of output value on different industries is different.The scenario analysis shows that reducing energy consumption per unit of output value and increasing investment in fixed assets significantly reduce industry carbon emissions.Logistic model results show that all key sectors are close to peaking in 2030.Jiangsu Province can take different measures on different industries,adopt targeted policies to promote clean energy substitution or technological upgrading,steadily advance green transformation of the industry,and avoid“one size fits all”for high-emission sectors.
作者
曹广喜
张力
CAO Guangxi;ZHANG Li
出处
《阅江学刊》
2022年第1期129-140,175,共13页
Yuejiang Academic Journal
基金
江苏省社科应用研究精品工程课题“我国2030年前碳达峰前提下江苏能源需求和保障对策研究”(21SYA-006)。
