摘要
在中国经济步入高质量发展的语境下,以煤炭和钢铁行业作为试点的供给侧改革已拉开帷幕。利用中国2000—2017年的季度时间序列,经过平稳性、协整性和因果性等一系列计量检验,建立了关于煤炭和火电、钢铁、建材和煤化工四大下游行业的VAR模型。分析认为,变量间协整即存在长期均衡关系;可以建立滞后阶数为2的平稳向量自回归模型;煤炭和钢铁、建材行业是双向因果关系,但煤炭是火电和煤化工的单向格兰杰原因;脉冲响应显示钢铁和建材对煤炭的冲击较大,而煤炭对下游的4个行业冲击都很显著;方差分解说明下游行业对煤炭行业的贡献率从大到小依次为钢铁、建材、火电和煤化工。最后,针对煤炭行业的发展提出了具体举措。
In the context of high-quality development of China’s economy,the supply side reform with coal and steel industry as a pilot has begun.Using China’s quarterly time series from 2000 to 2017,after a series of econometric tests such as stationarity,cointegration and causality,VAR models for four downstream industries of coal and thermal power,steel,building materials and coal chemical industry are established.The analysis shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between variables;The stationary vector autoregressive model with lag order of 2 can be established;Coal,steel and building materials industries are two-way causality,but coal is the one-way Granger cause of thermal power and coal chemical industry;Impulse response shows that steel and building materials have a great impact on coal,while coal has a significant impact on the four downstream industries;Variance decomposition shows that the contribution rate of downstream industries to the coal industry from large to small is steel,building materials,thermal power and coal chemical industry.Finally,the research puts forward specific measures for the development of coal industry.
作者
张强
叶晨希
Zhang Qiang;Ye Chenxi(Agency Service Bureau of the Ministry of Finance,Beijing 100820,China;University of Leeds,Leeds Ls29jt,England)
出处
《煤炭经济研究》
2021年第9期62-69,共8页
Coal Economic Research
关键词
供给侧结构性改革
产能过剩
煤炭行业
supply-side structural Reform
excess production capacity
coal industry
