摘要
中国生猪进口量逐年上升,国际生猪市场和国内生猪市场的联系日渐紧密。欧盟生猪市场成为中国生猪市场的主要关联市场。本文基于2011年1月至2020年11月的欧盟生猪价格和国内生猪价格数据,建立国际生猪价格和国内生猪价格的动态多元GARCH模型,考察国际生猪和国内生猪市场的波动溢出效应和动态关联性,并加入外部因素,探讨外部因素对国内外生猪市场联动性的介入效应。结果发现:欧盟的生猪价格与中国生猪价格长期来看具有部分同步性,更多阶段存在反向变化,且差距程度自2019年起明显扩大。中国生猪价格和欧盟生猪价格之间存在明显的双向溢出效应,但不具备长期持续性。中国生猪市场和欧盟生猪市场之间的动态相关程度均值约13.15%且波动较大;整体上外部冲击会降低中国生猪市场与欧盟生猪市场之间的动态关联性,全球经济政策不确定性使中国生猪市场与欧盟生猪市场之间的动态关联性略有下降,国际原油价格波动降低了中国生猪市场与欧盟生猪市场之间的动态关联性,影响幅度较大,而美元货币政策使中国生猪市场与欧盟生猪市场之间的动态关联性略有加强。据此本文提出加强生猪产业规模化、健全生猪安全防控机制、增强生猪抵抗风险能力等相关建议,从而保障国内生猪市场的健康发展、提高国内生猪市场的影响力。
The import volume of hog in China is increasing year by year,and the impact of external factors makes the international hog market and domestic hog market closer and closer.Based on January 2011 to November 2020,the European Union hog prices and domestic hog prices,established international prices and domestic hog dynamic multivariate GARCH model,and reviewed the international and domestic hog market volatility spillover effect and dynamic relation,and joined the external factors,discusses the external factors on the international and domestic hog market correlation intervention effect.It is found that hog prices in EU and China are partially synchronized in the long run,and there are more stages of reverse changes,and the gap has been significantly widened since 2019.There is a two-way spillover effect between Chinese and EU hog prices,but it’s not sustainable.The dynamic correlation between China’s hog market and EU’s hog market is about 13.15%on average and fluctuates greatly.Overall external shocks will reduce China’s hog market dynamic relation between the market and the EU,and the global economic policy uncertainty makes hog market in China and the EU hog market fell slightly,the dynamic connection between the international oil price fluctuation is reduced China hog market dynamic relation between the market and the EU,and affect the larger,which makes the hog market in China and the EU monetary policy hog market dynamic relation between the better.Based on the conclusions,the paper puts forward some suggestions on reducing the cost of hog,ensuring the supply and narrowing the gap between supply and demand,perfecting trade subsidies,etc.,in order to improve the market competitiveness of domestic hog and promote the healthy development of domestic hog market.
作者
喻龙敏
付莲莲
YU Longmin;FU Lianlian
出处
《世界农业》
CSSCI
2022年第1期62-75,共14页
World Agriculture
基金
国家自然科学基金(71963019)
江西高校人文社会科学青年基金(GL19220)。
