摘要
2021年在复杂严峻的国内外环境下,中国政府采取多项措施,科学统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展,经济恢复持续增长。2022年,中国经济发展面临着很大的不确定性。文章系统分析和预测了中国中长期经济增长速度的发展趋势和变化规律,预计中国中长期经济增速将呈波浪形下降趋势。基于投入产出技术、计量经济学、景气分析法、专家分析法、情景分析等,为预测国内生产总值(GDP)构建了系统综合因素预测法。在对2021年中国全年经济发展进行回顾和分析的基础上,根据当前国内、国际形势对2022年中国经济增长速度作出了预测:预计2022年中国经济增长态势将基本恢复正常,全年增速为5.5%左右。文章基于经济形势分析提出了相关政策建议:科学有序防疫,加大宏观政策跨周期调节,进一步提振消费,科学灵活实现“双碳”目标,加快发展数字经济和产业数字化。
Faced with the complex domestic and international environment,the Chinese government took various measures to coordinate epidemic control with economic and social development,earning recovered growth of the economy in 2021.In 2022,China's economic development will be facing greater uncertainty.This study systematically analyzes and forecasts the development trend and regularity of China's medium and long-term economic growth rate.It is expected that the medium and long-term economic growth rate of China will show a downward trend in a wave shape.Based on input-output technology,econometrics,prosperity analysis,expert analysis,and scenario analysis,a systematic integrated factor prediction approach on annual GDP growth is proposed.Based on the review and analysis of China's economic development in 2021,as well as the current domestic and international situation,China's economic growth rate is predicted to revert to normal level in 2022,with an annual growth rate of about 5.5%.The policy suggestions are further proposed based on the analysis,including implementing science-based measures in epidemic prevention and control,strengthening the cross-cycle policy adjustment,boosting consumption more vigorously,achieving the goal of"double carbon"scientifically and flexibly,and accelerating the development of digital economy and industrial digitization.
作者
陈锡康
杨翠红
祝坤福
王会娟
李鑫茹
姜青言
CHEN Xikang;YANG Cuihong;ZHU Kunfu;WANG Huijuan;LI Xinru;JIANG Qingyan(Center for Forecasting Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Statistics and Mathematics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)
出处
《中国科学院院刊》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第1期68-77,共10页
Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金(71988101、61873261、72074208、71673269)。
关键词
经济预测
经济形势分析
国内生产总值
政策建议
economic forecast
economic situation analysis
Gross Domestic Product(GDP)
policy suggestions
