摘要
利用联合国人口司数据和中国人口普查资料,分析到21世纪中叶世界和中国人口老龄化发展态势。目前,中国还未进入严重老龄化国家行列,高龄化、少子化程度较轻,老龄化程度还明显不及日本、欧美发达国家。未来三十年,世界人口老龄化将持续加深并进入中度老龄化社会。发达国家总体上迈入重度老龄化社会,韩国、日本将成为老龄化最严重的两个国家,高龄少子化日益严重。中国的老龄化、高龄化、少子化快速发展,到2050年甚至将超过美英等部分发达国家,也将明显超过印度、俄罗斯等人口大国。快速发展且形势严峻的人口老龄化国情,将成为中国进入新发展阶段实现高质量发展、参与大国竞争的重要人口基础。
Using data from the United Nations Population Division and Chinese census, this paper analyzed trends of population aging in China and the world as a whole by the middle of the 21 st century. China has not entered the ranks of severely aging countries, and has not yet been plagued by advanced aging and sub-replacement fertility. China’s population aging is obviously not as serious as that of Japan, the United States and other developed countries in Europe. In the next three decades, population aging worldwide will continue to intensify and the world will enter a moderately aging society. Developed countries as a whole have entered a severely aging society, and South Korea and Japan will become the two most aging countries, for which advanced aging and sub-replacement fertility will become increasingly grave. With the rapid development of population aging, advanced aging and declining fertility rate, by 2050 China’s population aging will be graver than some developed countries such as the United States and Britain, as well as India, Russia and other populous countries. The fast-growing and severely aging population will become an important demographic basis for China ’s high-quality development and participation in the world power race in the new development stage.
作者
刘厚莲
LIU Houlian(China Population and Development Research Center,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《老龄科学研究》
2021年第12期1-16,共16页
Scientific Research on Aging
基金
国家社科基金项目“中国城市人口负增长对经济增长的影响及对策研究”(20CRK003)。
关键词
人口老龄化
人口年龄结构
高龄化
人口抚养比
少子化
population aging
the age structure of population
advanced aging
population dependency ratio
sub-replacement fertility
