摘要
促进产业转型升级,提升绿色全要素生产率是推进我国资源型城市高质量发展的关键。但是,产业转型升级能否提升绿色全要素生产率在学术界一直存在争论。以2003—2018年中国116个地级资源型城市为对象,分析了产业转型升级与绿色全要素生产率提升的演化特征和互动关系。结果表明:(1)56.9%的资源型城市产业转型升级并不理想,处于产业结构高级化和合理化不同步或双低的状态;有57.8%的资源型城市绿色全要素生产率实现了正增长,但仍有一些资源型城市绿色全要素生产率增长缓慢,主要是因为技术效率未得到有效改善。(2)PVAR模型和脉冲响应估计结果表明,资源型城市绿色全要素生产率提升的滞后期对其自身的影响存在负向作用。同时,资源型城市长期的传导路径为绿色全要素生产率提升受到反映产业结构合理化的泰尔指数的负向冲击后,对产业结构高级化产生持续性的积极作用,之后,产业结构高级化不断对自身产生正向冲击作用。(3)通过方差分解预测可知,未来绿色全要素生产率提升、产业结构高级化与合理化仍主要依赖自身发展路径。产业结构高级化对绿色全要素生产率提升的解释力高于产业结构合理化的解释力。随着期数的增加,产业结构高级化与绿色全要素生产率提升的相互解释力逐渐上升。
Advancing industrial transformation and upgrading and improving green total factor productivity are the key to promoting the high-quality development of resource-based cities in China. However, whether industrial transformation and upgrading can improve green total factor productivity has been controversial in academic circles. Focusing on 116 prefecture-level resource-based cities in China from 2003 to 2018, this paper analyzes the evolutionary characteristics and interactive relationship between industrial transformation and upgrading and green total factor productivity improvement. The results are as follows:(1) 56.9% of resource-based cities have implemented unsatisfactory industrial transformation and upgrading, and are in unbalanced state or double-low state between advanced and industrial structure rationalizations;57.8% of resource-based cities have achieved positive growth in green total factor productivity, but the average annual growth rates of green total factor productivity in some resource-based cities increased slowly due to unimproved technological inefficiency.(2) The estimation results of PVAR model and impulse response show that there exists a time lag in the negative impact of green total factor productivity improvement on itself. At the same time, the long-term impact transmission mechanism is that after receiving the negative impact from the Theil index, an indicator to reflect industrial structure rationalization, the green total factor productivity improvement has a continuous positive effect on the industrial structure advancement. Then industrial structure advancement continuously imposes a positive effect on itself.(3) According to the analysis of variance decomposition forecast, green total factor productivity improvement, as well as industrial structure advancement and rationalization are mainly dependent on their own development paths. It can be seen that the explanatory power of the industrial structure advancement for green total factor productivity improvement is higher than that of the industrial structure rationalization. With the increase of periods, the mutual explanatory powers of both industrial structure advancement and green total factor productivity improvement gradually increase.
作者
李博
秦欢
孙威
LI Bo;QIN Huan;SUN Wei(School of Management,Tianjin University of Technology,Tianjin 300384,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;School of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第1期186-199,共14页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(18BJY061)。
关键词
资源型城市
绿色全要素生产率
产业结构高级化
产业结构合理化
resource-based cities
green total factor productivity
industrial structure advancement
industrial structure rationalization
