摘要
明确气候变化特征及其对小麦生产的影响,有助于为农业适应气候变化方案的制定提供理论依据。本研究分析了晋南小麦主产区临汾、运城市1957—2015年降水量、气温、日照时长、潜在蒸散量、干燥度等变化及其对冬小麦生育期及产量的影响。结果表明:1957—2015年,临汾、运城市全年降水量和冬小麦生育期日照时长均呈下降趋势,冬小麦生育期降水量则表现为越冬前降低,越冬—拔节上升,拔节—开花降低的变化趋势;两地年日均温度、日均最高温度、日均最低温度分别以0.24~0.37、0.16~0.18、0.37~0.60℃·(10 a)^(-1)速率上升;冬小麦各生育期积温呈显著上升趋势,其中,临汾、运城市生育期≥3℃有效积温分别以76.94、63.10℃·(10 a)^(-1)速率上升;≥10℃活动积温分别以74.35、57.20℃·(10 a)^(-1)速率上升。临汾市潜在蒸散量及干燥度呈降低趋势,而运城市则呈上升趋势;临汾、运城市冬小麦越冬阶段天数分别以4.56、3.09 d·(10 a)^(-1)的速率减少;临汾、运城市冬小麦产量分别以645.4、528.8 kg·hm^(-2)·(10 a)^(-1)速率上升。产量与各气象要素的相关分析表明,冬小麦产量与积温、年日均温度、日均最低温度、生育期日照时长、越冬—拔节阶段降水量均呈显著或极显著相关;临汾产量还与日均最高温度呈显著正相关,与潜在蒸散量、干燥度指数呈显著或极显著负相关。总之,晋南地区气候呈暖干旱趋势,当前气候变化整体有利于小麦生产,但为进一步降低气候变化带来的不利影响,可以引进和培养生育期长、弱冬性的小麦品种。
Clarifying the characteristics of climate change and its impacts on wheat yield will provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of agricultural adaptation plans to climate change.Here,we analyzed the changes of precipitation,temperature,sunshine duration,potential evapotranspiration,aridity index,and their impacts on growth stage and yield of winter wheat in Linfen and Yuncheng from 1957 to 2015,two main wheat production areas in Southern Shanxi.The results showed that a downward trend of annual precipitation and sunshine duration was found during wheat growth stage from 1957 to 2015.Precipitation during the growth period of winter wheat showed a decreasing trend before winter,an increasing trend from wintering stage to jointing stage,and a decreasing trend from jointing stage to anthesis stage.The annual mean daily temperature,mean daily maximum temperature,and mean daily minimum temperature in the two places increased with a rate of 0.24-0.37,0.16-0.18,and 0.37-0.60 ℃·(10 a)^(-1),respectively.The accumulated temperature of winter wheat in each growth period showed a significant upward trend.Among them,the effective accumulated temperature of Linfen and Yuncheng during the growth period of ≥3 ℃ increased with a rate of 76.94 and 63.10 ℃·(10 a)^(-1),respectively;the active accumulated temperature(≥10 ℃) increased at a rate of 74.35 and 57.20 ℃·(10 a)^(-1),respectively.The potential evapotranspiration and aridity index of Linfen were decreasing,while that of Yuncheng was increasing.The duration of winter wheat wintering stage in Linfen and Yuncheng decreased with a rate of 4.56 and 3.09 d·(10 a)^(-1),respectively.The yield of winter wheat in Linfen and Yuncheng increased at the rate of 645.4 and 528.8 kg·hm^(-2)·(10 a)^(-1),respectively.Results of correlation analysis between yield and various meteorological factors showed that winter wheat yield was significantly correlated with accumulated temperature,annual daily mean temperature,mean daily minimum temperature,sunshine duration during growth period,and precipitation during wintering stage to joining stage.Yield was significantly positively correlated with mean daily maximum temperature,and was significantly or extremely significantly negatively correlated with potential evapotranspiration and aridity index in Linfen.In short,climate in Southern Shanxi is becoming warm and dry.Current climate change is generally beneficial to wheat production.To further reduce the adverse effects of climate change,wheat varieties with long growth period and weak winter characteristics can be introduced and cultivated.
作者
钟融
任永康
王培如
林文
任爱霞
孙敏
高志强
徐隽铭
ZHONG Rong;REN Yong-kang;WANG Pei-ru;LIN Wen;REN Ai-xia;SUN Min;GAO Zhi-qiang;XU Jun-ming(College Agronomy of Shanxi Agricultural University,Taigu 030801,Shanxi,China;Technical Station of Yuncheng Agriculture and Rural Bureau,Yuncheng 044000,Shanxi,China)
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第1期81-89,共9页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
国家现代农业产业技术体系建设专项(CARS-03-01-24)
山西省“1331工程”重点创新团队建设计划项目
小麦旱作栽培山西省重点创新团队项目(201605D131041)
山西省重大专项重点实验室课题(202003-2)
黄土高原特色作物优质高效生产省部共建协同创新中心基金项目(SBGJXTZX-32)资助。
关键词
黄土高原
冬小麦
降水量
气温
产量
Loess Plateau
winter wheat
precipitation
temperature
yield
