摘要
经济发展是一个连续的历史进程,与发展阶段相适应的需求结构、技术体系和关联方式决定了不同的发展格局。基于国民收入核算分析框架,从资本要素流动视角,将国内投资分为本地投资和外商投资,界定内循环和外循环经济变量,构建地级市层面全样本和分阶段面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,探究内循环和外循环的关系及其在经济发展中的地位变迁。结果表明:前期外商投资外循环因素对我国经济促进作用明显;后期内循环作用增强,外循环作用减弱。据此,应提升消费对经济增长的贡献,强化本地投资和外商投资双向互动,形成统一国内大市场,畅通国内大循环。
Economic development is a continuous historical process.Different development patterns are determined by the demand structure,technical system and correlation mode corresponding to the development stage.Based on the analysis framework of national income accounting,from the perspective of capital factor flow,the paper divides domestic investment into local investment and foreign investment,defines internal and external circular economic variables,builds a full sample and staged sample panel-vector autoregressive(PVAR)model on the panel data of prefecture-level cities in China,and explores the relationship between internal and external circular economy and its position change in economic development.The results show that the external circulation factors of foreign investment in the early stage plays an obvious role in promoting China’s economy.In the later stage,the effect of internal circulation increases and the effect of external circulation decreases.Combined with the empirical results,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions,such as improving the contribution of consumption to economic growth,strengthening the two-way interaction between local investment and foreign investment,forming a unified domestic market,and smoothing the domestic circulation.
作者
李俊锋
李鲲鹏
LI Jun-feng;LI Kun-peng(School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100072,China;International School of Economics and Management,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100072,China)
出处
《经济体制改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第1期127-134,共8页
Reform of Economic System
基金
国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金项目“大数据背景下因子模型的理论与应用研究”(71722011)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“因子增广回归模型:理论、方法与应用”(71571122)。
