摘要
鉴于地铁应急疏散中决策者的有限理性、决策者的异质性以及所面临决策环境的差异性,通过将决策者的个人属性和备选方案的方案属性引入参照点,建立了基于动态异质性参照点的地铁应急疏散出口选择模型。通过将该模型应用到上海世纪大道地铁站的调查数据,并将不同情景和不同决策者类别的模型结果分别与基于静态同质性参照点的模型结果进行对比,表明基于动态异质性参照点的模型预测结果与实际选择结果之间的误差更小,能更准确地描述决策者的决策行为。
In view of the bounded rationality and the heterogeneity of decision makers,and the differences in the decision-making environment faced by the decision makers in subway emergency evacuation,the personal attributes of decision makers and the attributes of alternatives were introduced into the reference points,and a subway emergency evacuation exit selection model based on dynamic heterogeneous reference points was established.The model was applied to the survey data of Shanghai Century Avenue Subway Station,and the model results of different scenarios and different decision-makers categories respectively were compared with the model results based on static homogeneity reference points.Result shows that the error between the prediction results based on the dynamic heterogeneous reference points and the actual selection results is smaller and the decision-making behavior of the decision maker can be described more accurately.
作者
王立晓
盖筱培
孙小慧
WANG Li-xiao;GE Xiao-pei;SUN Xiao-hui(School of Civil Engineering, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830047, China)
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2022年第3期1292-1298,共7页
Science Technology and Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金(71861032)
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2018D01C071)。
关键词
应急疏散
出口选择
前景理论
异质性
参照点
emergency evacuation
exit choice
prospect theory
heterogeneity
reference point
