摘要
值此三胎政策施行之际,儿童照护政策作为提振生育意愿、完善社会保障体系的重要治理工具引起各方重视。基于2007—2019年各省级幼儿园预算内教育经费面板数据,研究通过计算预算比率变化、L-K值等方法实证分析我国儿童照护预算的变迁间断性情况,并采用固定效应模型分析政府注意力、政策图景和制度摩擦对儿童照护预算间断性的影响。研究发现,我国儿童照护预算变迁遵循间断-均衡逻辑,政府注意力、家庭摩擦对儿童照护预算有显著影响,政策图景、社会制度摩擦和市场制度摩擦的影响不显著。这说明我国政治体制会放大预算间断性,媒体信息则无法显著影响间断性,政府与社会的交互关系塑造了儿童照护预算变迁模式的基本特征。本研究为儿童照护研究提供了预算变迁的分析视角,并提出树立儿童权利本位、注重政策目标延续性、加强对社会照护服务的经济支持的政策建议。
At the time of the implementation of the three-child policy,childcare attracted attention as an important governance tool to boost fertility.Applying provincial panel data on childcare budgets from 2007 to 2019,we empirically analyzed the punctuations of China's childcare budget process by calculating the change in budget ratio and L-K values and analyzed the effects of government attention,policy image,and institutional frictions on the budget process using a fixed-effects model.We found China's childcare budgeting changes abided by the logic of punctuated equilibrium.Government's attention and family demands have significant effects on childcare budgets,but policy image,social friction,and market friction were not significant.This shows China's political system will magnify budget punctuation,while media information cannot significantly affect punctuation.The interaction between the government and society shapes the basic characteristics of childcare budget changes.This research provides a budget change perspective for childcare policy research.It also suggests policy designs for social childcare services that will protect children's rights,maintain policy goal continuity,and strengthen economic support.
作者
徐宏宇
吴金鹏
Hongyu Xu;Jinpeng Wu
出处
《公共行政评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第1期110-126,198,199,共19页
Journal of Public Administration
关键词
儿童照护预算
间断-均衡
政府注意力
政策图景
制度摩擦
Childcare Budget
Punctuated-Equilibrium
Government Attention
Policy Image
Institutional Friction
