摘要
针对我国船式平台设计建造与养殖运营尚缺少相关的技术经济论证系统,根据船式平台的特点,通过对影响平台建造与营运经济性的平台主尺度、养殖水体体积、平台养殖技术和目标商品鱼种进行参数设计,选取净现值、净现值指数、投资偿还期和养殖效果系数等经济指标,外加初始投资作为经济论证因素集,运用参数分析法、模糊综合评判、灰关联度分析等方法进行平台方案论证优选。选取初始投资、周期养殖成本、鱼价、存活率和预期的基准收益率作为不确定性因素进行敏感性分析。通过实例计算得到平台初始投资应不超过4.25亿元,每周期的渔业养殖成本应低于1.37亿元,预期的基准投资收益率不应超过25.0%,成活率应高于85.8%,4种商品鱼平均鱼价应不低于109元kg。
In view of lack of relevant techno-economic verification system for design,construction and aquaculture operation of ship-type platforms in China,based on characteristics of ship type platform,through parameter design of platform principal dimension,aquaculture water volume,platform aquaculture technology and target commercial fish species,which affect platform construction and operating economy,economic indexes were selected,such as net present value,net present value index,investment payback period and breeding effect coefficient,together with initial investment,set of factors that make up economic argument,grid method,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and grey correlation analysis were used to evaluate and optimize platform scheme.The initial investment,cycle breeding cost,fish price,survival rate and expected benchmark rate of return were selected as uncertainty factors for sensitivity analysis.According to example calculation,initial investment of platform should not exceed 425 million yuan,cost of breeding of each cycle should be less than 137 million yuan,expected benchmark rate of return on investment should not exceed 25.0%,survival rate should be higher than 85.8%,and average price of four commercial fish should not be less than 109 yuan kg.
作者
白世阳
张亚
王乐
庞洪祯
BAI Shiyang;ZHANG Ya;WANG Le;PANG Hongzhen(School of Navigation and Naval Architecture Engineering,Dalian Ocean University,Dalian Liaoning 116023,China)
出处
《农业工程》
2021年第12期120-126,共7页
AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING
关键词
船式养殖平台
参数分析法
模糊综合评判
灰关联度分析
技术经济论证
ship-type aquaculture platform
parametric analysis method
fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
grey correlation analysis
techno-economic verification
