摘要
地铁客运量预测为地铁服务提升及地铁运能优化提供数据基础,在地铁线网稳定期可采用日变系数法和回归预测法进行客运量预测。日变系数法针对历史客运量变化规律进行分析总结,使用日变系数进行短期周客运量预测;回归预测法通过Eviews预测软件,建立对应的预测模型进行周客运量预测,预测完成后用昆明地铁2019年历史客运量数据进行验证,并对两种预测方法的预测结果进行对比,进一步分析2种预测方法的适用条件及范围,进而提升预测的精确度。研究对比客运量预测方法,选取日变系数法和回归预测法进行客运量预测。
The prediction of metro passenger volume provides the data basis for the improvement of metro service and the optimization of metro capacity.In the stable period of metro line network,the daily variation coefficient method and the regression prediction method can be used to forecast the passenger volume.The daily variable coefficient method can analyze and summarize the historical variation rule of passenger volume,and the daily variable coefficient can be used to forecast the short-term weekly passenger volume.Regression prediction model can establish the forecast model of passenger traffic prediction by the Eviews software.Prediction is completed with Kunming metro passenger data verification by 2019.In order to enhance the accuracy of the prediction,the two methods of prediction are compared and analyzed of the applicable conditions of and range.
作者
李沁鲜
LI Qin-xian(Kunming Metro Operation Co.,Ltd.,Kunming,Yunnan 650000,China)
出处
《黑龙江交通科技》
2022年第1期166-168,共3页
Communications Science and Technology Heilongjiang
关键词
地铁
客运量预测
日变系数法
回归预测法
metro
passenger volume forecast
daily variation coefficient method
regression prediction method
