摘要
在"碳中和"及"碳达峰"的背景下,高比例可再生能源电力系统将成为未来电力系统发展的一个重要趋势,同时外界极端环境日趋多变多发,电力系统随机因素日益增加,将对系统的经济、安全、稳定运行产生重大影响,需要根据随机因素的不同特征研究分析其对系统的影响以及应对的措施。从随机变量以及描述方程的角度,将电力系统随机问题分为随机稳态问题、随机动态问题、随机事件问题3类。面向这3类随机问题,分别介绍其问题描述,归纳其分析方法。针对电力系统随机稳态问题,从随机特征分析及随机决策问题2个角度综述和探讨了含随机性的电力系统稳态分析方法;针对电力系统随机动态问题,从振荡、安全和稳定3个方面综述和探讨了随机性对系统动态的影响;针对电力系统随机事件问题,从概率分析和马尔可夫分析2个方面综述其分析方法。最后,对新能源的概率预测、强随机性下的系统规划运行、低惯性下的抗干扰能力、随机动力学、极端气候对新能源的影响进行了研究展望。
In the context of carbon neutrality and emission peak,the power system with high penetration of renewable energy will become one important development trend of future power system.In addition,extreme weather events occur with high variability and frequency.Power systems,in consequence,have more and more uncertainties,that have great impacts on economical,safe and stable system operation.It is necessary to analyze these impacts and the corresponding measures based on the stochastic characteristics.From the perspectives of stochastic variables and system equations,the power system stochastic problems are divided into three categories of stochastic steady state problem,stochastic dynamic problem and stochastic event problem.The description and analysis methods are presented for these three types of problems,respectively.For the power system stochastic steady state problem,the system stochastic steady state analysis method is presented from the perspective of stochastic feature analysis and stochastic decision problem.For the power system stochastic dynamic problem,the impacts of stochastics on dynamics from oscillation,security,and stability are reviewed and discussed.For the power system stochastic event problem,a survey on probabilistic analysis and Markov analysis is performed.Finally,the future trend of probabilistic forecasting for renewables,system stochastic planning and operation,anti-disturbance capability with low inertia,stochastic dynamics,and impacts of extreme weather on renewables are discussed.
作者
王冲
王秀丽
鞠平
邵成成
李洪宇
WANG Chong;WANG Xiuli;JU Ping;SHAO Chengcheng;LI Hongyu(College of Energy and Electrical Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,China)
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第3期184-199,共16页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51907050)。
关键词
电力系统
随机事件
稳态
动态
power system
stochastic event
steady state
dynamic state
