摘要
利用1961—2018年陕西中北部50个气象站温度数据和1997—2017年13个农业气象观测站的冬小麦生育期资料,采用线性趋势分析、M-K检验和GIS技术等方法,分析陕西中北部冬小麦关键发育期与界限温度的相关性,分区研究气候变暖背景下该区冬小麦返青前热量资源时空变化特征及其对冬小麦的潜在影响。结果表明:(1)陕西中北部地区冬小麦播种期、越冬期和返青期分别与14℃终日、0℃终日和0℃初日显著相关。(2)关中川道冬小麦平均播期较渭北地区晚10天左右,两区冬小麦播种期旬平均气温和冬前≥0℃积温均呈增加趋势。随着14℃终日的推后,冬小麦适宜播种期呈推后趋势,20世纪90年代推后趋势尤为显著。(3)冬小麦越冬开始时间呈南早北晚的空间分布特征,而返青期相反。冬小麦返青期随时间推移呈显著提前趋势,而越冬期始期变化不明显。(4)越冬期长度和越冬期负积温均呈缩减趋势,关中川道年极端最低气温上升显著,这些变化利于降低冬小麦越冬冻害风险,但也削弱了小麦抗寒能力,增加了病虫害越冬基数。
Based on the temperature data of 50 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2018 and the investigation data of winter wheat growth periods from 1997 to 2017 in central and northern Shaanxi,we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of heat resources before the turning green stage of winter wheat under the background of climate change and their potential effects on winter wheat,by using the linear trend estimation,MannKendall test and GIS technique.Meanwhile,the correlations between the key development periods of winter wheat and critical temperature were studied.The results showed that:(1)in central and northern Shaanxi,there were significant correlations between the sowing date of winter wheat and the final day≥14℃,between the beginning date of winter wheat overwintering stage and the final day≥0℃,and between the turning green date and the initial day≥0℃;(2)the average sowing date of Guanzhong plain was 10 days later than that of Weibei plateau,the ten-day average temperature and the accumulated temperature≥0℃before winter had an increasing trend in the two regions,the suitable sowing date of winter wheat was gradually postponed with the delaying of the final day≥14℃,and the delaying trend was particularly obvious in the late 1990s;(3)the beginning date of winter wheat overwintering stage in the southern region was earlier than that in the northern region,but the turning green date showed the opposite distribution;the turning green date of winter wheat had an obvious advance in recent 58 years,but the beginning date of winter wheat overwintering stage had no obvious change;(4)the duration and the negative accumulated temperature during overwintering decreased with the climate warming,while the annual minimum temperature showed an evidently increasing trend in Guanzhong plain.These changes are beneficial to reducing the freezing injury risk of winter wheat,but could weaken the cold resistance of winter wheat and raise the base of overwintering diseases and insect pests.
作者
李红梅
权文婷
张树誉
LI Hongmei;QUAN Wenting;ZHANG Shuyu(Shaanxi Agricultural Remote Sensing and Economic Crop Meteorological Service Center,Xi’an 710016;Meteorological Bureau of Shaanxi Province,Xi’an 710014)
出处
《中国农学通报》
2022年第4期53-61,共9页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
国家自然科学基金“综合叶面积指数和条件植被温度指数的作物长势监测方法研究”(41871336)。
关键词
冬小麦
返青期
越冬期
积温
陕西
winter wheat
turning green stage
overwintering
accumulated temperature
Shaanxi
