摘要
The international community has made significant efforts to flatten the COVID-19 curve,including predicting transmission[1,2],executing unprecedented global lockdowns and social distancing[3,4],promoting the wearing of facemasks and social distancing measures[5],and isolating confirmed cases and contacts[6].Because of the adverse consequences of these lockdown measures[7],many cities have reopened so they can rebuild their economies.However,as mobility has gradually returned towards normal,imported cases from unknown sources have disrupted the recovery situation,and cities are continually at high risk of new waves of infection[8,9]since airborne transmission is the dominant transmission route[10].
城市交通出行方式和出行目的地的选择与新型冠状病毒的传播具有关联性.本研究基于2020年2~12月期间,苹果和谷歌公司记录的全球58个城市的交通出行报告,通过多变量时间序列分析,研究了城市交通出行行为对每日确诊病例的影响.研究发现,在全球尺度,与出行目的地相关的行为活动对每日确诊病例的贡献最大,其次是传染源和出行方式.在三类出行方式中,开车是最安全的通勤方式.而在一些大城市,步行的风险显著提高.虽然公众对乘坐公共交通比较担心,但该出行方式在部分城市反而是相对安全的.在六类出行目的地中,与车站和工作地相关的活动对疫情的传播贡献最大,而与药店和公园相关的活动对疫情传播的贡献最小.同时发现,建城区人口密度和口罩使用率在不同时期对病毒传播的影响具有差异性.该研究有助于为交通出行政策的制定提供依据,有助于市政在控制和预防病毒流行的同时保持城市开放.
作者
Rui Zhu
Luc Anselin
Michael Batty
Mei-Po Kwan
Min Chen
Wei Luo
Tao Cheng
Che Kang Lim
Paolo Santi
Cheng Cheng
Qiushi Gu
Man Sing Wong
Kai Zhang
Guonian Lü
Carlo Ratti
朱瑞;Luc Anselin;Michael Batty;Mei-Po Kwan;陈旻;骆威;程涛;Che Kang Lim;Paolo Santi;程澄;顾秋实;Man Sing Wong;张凯;闾国年;Carlo Ratti(Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics,the Hong Kong Polytechnic University,Hong Kong,China;Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment(Ministry of Education),Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Senseable City Laboratory,Future Urban Mobility IRG,Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology,Singapore 138602,Singapore;Center for Spatial Data Science,Division of the Social Sciences,University of Chicago,Chicago IL 60637,USA;School of Geography Science,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis,Faculty of the Built Environment,University College London,London WC1E 6BT,UK;Department of Geography and Resource Management,the Chinese University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong,China;Institute of Space and Earth Information Science,the Chinese University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong,China;Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning,Utrecht University,Utrecht 3584 CS,Netherlands;State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution,Nanjing 210023,China;Department of Geography,National University of Singapore,Singapore 117570,Singapore;SpaceTimeLab,Department of Civil,Environmental and Geomatic Engineering,University College London,London WC1E 6BT,UK;Department of Clinical Translational Research,Singapore General Hospital,Singapore 169856,Singapore;Division of Clinical Immunology and Transfusion Medicine,Department of Laboratory Medicine,Karolinska Institutet,Stockholm 17177,Sweden;Senseable City Laboratory,Department of Urban Studies and Planning,Massachusetts Institute of Technology,Cambridge,MA 02139,USA;Istituto di Informatica e Telematica del CNR,Pisa 56124,Italy;Department of System Science,Institute of High Performance Computing Agency for Science,Technology and Research,Singapore 138632,Singapore;Department of Tourism Studies,School of Humanities,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China)
基金
support from the National Research Foundation
Prime Minister’s Office
Singapore under its Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise(CREATE)programme
The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Strategic Hiring Scheme(P0036221)
support from the Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(41930648)
supports from the Hong Kong Research Grants Council(15602619,15603920,and C7064-18GF)
supports from the Hong Kong Research Grants Council(14605920,14611621,and C4023-20GF)
support from the National University of Singapore
Ministry of Education,Tier 1 under WBS R-109-000-270-133
Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China(GS(2021)7327)。
