摘要
目的分析2015―2020年陕西省4类主要慢性非传染性疾病(心脑血管疾病、恶性肿瘤、慢性呼吸系统疾病和糖尿病,简称慢性病)的死亡情况、早死概率、变化趋势,以及预测陕西省"健康中国2030"主要慢性病早死概率目标的实现情况。方法利用2015―2020年陕西省死因监测数据,计算粗死亡率、标化死亡率、构成比、早死概率、平均增长速度、早死概率预测值、早死概率目标值,死亡率的比较采用χ^(2)检验,变化趋势的分析采用年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)。结果2015―2020年,陕西省4类主要慢性病死亡数占总死亡数比例均达到83.00%以上,占慢性病死亡数比例均达到94.00%以上;总人群、男性和女性的4类主要慢性病粗死亡率均呈上升趋势(总人群APC=2.02%、男性APC=2.12%、女性APC=1.92%),标化死亡率均呈下降趋势(总人群APC=-2.96%、男性APC=-2.47%、女性APC=-3.54%),趋势性χ^(2)检验均有统计学意义(均有P<0.05);历年男性4类主要慢性病粗死亡率均高于女性,差异均有统计学意义(均有P<0.001)。2015―2020年陕西省总人群、男性和女性4类主要慢性病早死概率呈下降趋势(总人群APC=-1.78%、男性APC=-1.19%、女性APC=-3.05%),趋势性χ^(2)检验均有统计学意义(均有P<0.05);6年间陕西省总人群、男性和女性早死概率分别以1.98%、1.34%、3.43%的速度下降,根据下降速率预测,到2030年,除女性外,陕西省总人群、男性早死概率均无法达到"健康中国2030"早死概率的目标值。结论2015―2020年陕西省4类主要慢性病标化死亡率和早死概率均呈下降趋势,但总人群和男性早死概率无法实现目标值,建议进一步加强慢性病综合防治,采取有针对性的干预措施,促进"健康中国2030"目标的实现。
Objective The study aimed to analyze the mortality,probability of premature death and change trend of four major chronic diseases(cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,malignant tumors,chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes)in Shaanxi Province from 2015 to 2020,and predicting the realization of the goal of"Healthy China 2030"for major chronic diseases on probability of premature death.Methods Using the monitoring data of death causes in Shaanxi Province from 2015 to 2020,the crude mortality rate,standardized mortality rate,constituent ratio,probability of early death,average growth rate,predicted value of probability of early death and target value of probability of early death were calculated.χ^(2)test was used for comparison of mortality rates,and annual percentage change(APC)was used for analysis of trends.Results From 2015 to 2020,the death rate of four major chronic diseases accounted for more than 83.00%of the total death rate and more than 94.00%of the death rate of chronic diseases in Shaanxi Province.The crude mortality of the four major chronic diseases in the total population,male and female subgroup showed an upward trend(APC=2.02%,male APC=2.12%,female APC=1.92%),and the standardized mortality showed a downward trend(APC=-2.96%,male APC=-2.47%,female APC=-3.54%),with statistical significance(all P<0.05).The crude mortality of four major chronic diseases in male was higher than that in female over the years,with statistical significance(all P<0.001).From 2015 to 2020,the probability of premature death of four major chronic diseases in the total population,male and female showed a decreasing trend(total population APC=-1.78%,male APC=-1.19%,female APC=-3.05%),and the trend test showed statistical significance(all P<0.05).In the past 6 years,the probability of premature death of the total population,male and female in Shaanxi Province decreased by 1.98%,1.34%and 3.43%,respectively.According to the prediction of the decline rate,the probability of premature death of the total population and male in Shaanxi Province will not reach the target value of"Healthy China 2030"by 2030,but female can reach the target.Conclusions From 2015 to 2020,the standardized mortality rate and the probability of premature death of four major chronic diseases in Shaanxi Province had declined.The probability of premature death of the total population and male cannot achieve the target value.It is suggested to further strengthen the comprehensive prevention and control of chronic diseases,targeted intervention measures,to promote"Healthy China 2030"goal.
作者
邱琳
王维华
刘蓉
飒日娜
QIU Lin;WANG Wei-hua;LIU Rong;SA Ri-na(Department of the Prevention and Control of Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases,Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention,Xi'an 710054,China)
出处
《中华疾病控制杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第3期337-342,共6页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
基金
陕西省重点研发计划(2021SF-325)。
关键词
主要慢性病
死亡率
早死概率
Major chronic diseases
Mortality rate
Probability of premature death
