摘要
防范输入性金融风险对我国维护金融稳定具有重要意义。本文分析了各类重大冲击下我国输入性金融风险的演变规律、作用渠道以及防控政策的实施效果。研究发现:关于演变规律,重大金融冲击或贸易摩擦事件发生时,需要防范来自全球股票市场的风险输入;公共卫生事件或地缘政治冲突发生时,全球债券和黄金市场的风险输入是我国金融市场波动的重要来源。关于作用渠道,重大金融冲击和贸易摩擦事件发生时,我国经济景气程度上升能抑制输入性金融风险,投资者负面情绪会加剧输入性金融风险恶化。关于政策应对,可采取价格型、结构型货币政策和外汇审慎政策应对输入性金融风险。
Preventing imported financial risks is of great significance to financial stability.This paper analyzed the evolution,the mechanism of action,and effects of prevention and control poli-cies of China’s imported financial risks under various major shocks.Empirical results showed that when major financial shocks or trade friction events occured,attention should be paid to risk spillovers from the global stock market.When public health incidents or geopolitical conflicts occured,risk spillover from global bond and gold markets was an important source of volatility in China’s financial markets.Regarding the mechanism of action,when major financial shocks and trade frictions occured,a rise in China’s economic prosperity could curb imported financial risks,and negative investor sentiments would exacerbate imported financial risks.In terms of prevention and control policies,price-based monetary policies,structural monetary policies,and foreign exchange-based prudential policies could be adopted to deal with imported financial risks.
作者
方意
邵稚权
Fang Yi;Shao Zhiquan(School of Finance,Central University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第2期13-30,共18页
Economic Science
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“金融文本大数据与银行业系统性风险:指标构建、应用与评估整合”(项目编号:72173144)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“金融周期视角下的中国银行业系统性风险防范与化解研究”(项目编号:71973162)
教育部人文社会科学项目“供给侧改革、债务率调整与中国宏观经济浮动”(项目编号:19YJC790189)的阶段性成果。
关键词
重大冲击
输入性金融风险
金融风险防控
major shock
imported financial risk
financial risk management
