摘要
河流航运需求预测是航运规划建设的关键核心问题。引入产业结构系数及货运强度概念,分析长江、莱茵河、密西西比河3条黄金航道货运量与经济产业结构的相关关系。结果表明:货运量和弹性系数与GDP的相关性随经济结构优化调整而减弱。弹性系数和货运量增长率随产业结构系数增加有下降趋势,但相关性较差;产业结构系数较小时货运强度较大,货运强度随产业结构系数的增加而下降,采用回归分析法,建立了货运强度与产业结构系数的指数函数关系式。因此,可利用货运强度与产业结构系数相关关系进行河流航运需求预测工作,并且在经济指标选取时也可考虑产业结构系数的影响。研究结果可为长江等内河航运需求增长预测提供支撑。
The river shipping demand forecast is the core issue of shipping planning and construction.This paper introduces the concepts of industrial structure coefficient and freight intensity,and analyzes the correlation between freight volume and economic industrial structure of the three golden waterways of the Yangtze River,Rhine River and Mississippi River.The results show that the correlation between freight volume and elasticity coefficient and GDP decreases with the optimization and adjustment of economic structure.The growth rate of elasticity coefficient and freight volume tends to decrease with the increase of industrial structure coefficient,but the correlation is poor;the freight intensity is larger when the industrial structure coefficient is smaller,and the freight intensity decreases with the increase of industrial structure coefficient.The regression analysis method is used to establish the exponential function relationship between freight intensity and industry structure coefficient.Therefore,the correlation between freight intensity and industrial structure coefficient can be used for river shipping demand forecasting,and the influence of industrial structure coefficient can also be considered in selection of economic indicators.The research results provide a support for the forecast of inland river shipping demand growth such as the Yangtze River.
作者
李文杰
于凇凌
杜洪波
万宇
戴佳伶
LI Wen-jie;YU Song-ling;DU Hong-bo;WAN Yu;DAI Jia-ling(National Inland Waterway Regulation Engineering Research Center,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Hydraulic and Waterway Transport Engineering,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China)
出处
《水运工程》
北大核心
2022年第4期88-93,共6页
Port & Waterway Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52079013)。
关键词
货运量
经济结构
货运强度
产业结构系数
黄金航道
freight volume
economic structure
freight intensity
industrial structure coefficient
golden waterway
