摘要
赣州作为赣江、东江、北江(“三江”)的发源地,其水资源安全和可持续发展对下游的长江经济带和粤港澳大湾区的生态安全与可持续发展意义重大。因此,寻求赣州水资源能够承载的最佳可持续发展模式,确保水资源安全和可持续利用是当前亟待解决的问题。运用系统动力学方法,在分析赣州市水资源承载力影响因素和系统反馈回路基础上,将赣州市水资源承载力系统细分为社会经济、水资源和水环境3个子系统,构建赣州市水资源承载力的系统动力学模型,通过设计正常发展型、经济优先型、环境优先型、综合协调型4种情景,模拟2020—2035年赣州市水资源承载力,并对各情景下的水资源承载力可持续发展能力进行动态评估与仿真预测。研究结果表明:4种情景下,无论是单纯追求社会经济发展延续现状的正常发展型和经济优先型,还是牺牲经济社会发展而保护水资源的环境优先型,都无法保证水资源与社会经济的可持续发展。而在综合协调型发展模式下,至2035年,COD排放量保持较低水平,为13.29万t;而经济发展处于相对较高水平,其中GDP达到11971.3亿元,既保证了经济发展又兼顾了生态环境。因此,综合考虑社会经济发展和环境保护等多因素的综合协调型,是水资源能够承载的最佳可持续发展模式。
As Ganzhou is the birthplace of Ganjiang River,Dongjiang River,and Beijiang River(“Three Rivers”),the security and sustainable development of its water resources are of great significance to the ecological security and sustainable development of both the Yangtze River Economic Belt downstream and the Guangdong-Hongkong-Macao Greater Bay Area.Thus,seeking the optimal sustainable development mode that Ganzhou s water resources can carry and ensuring the safety and sustainable use of those water resources are currently urgent issues to be solved.In this study,we employ the system dynamics method to build a system dynamics model of Ganzhou s water resources carrying capacity by analyzing its influencing factors and the system feedback loop and dividing the carrying capacity system into three sub-systems of social economy,water resources,and water environment.Moreover,four scenarios of normal development,economic priority,environmental priority,and comprehensive and coordinated development are designed to simulate Ganzhou s water resources carrying capacity during 2020—2035 and dynamically evaluate and simulatively predict its sustainable development capacity under each scenario.The results indicate that among the four scenarios,all the normal development and economic priority scenarios that sorely pursue the continuation of the current development status of social economy and the environmental priority scenario that protects water resources at the expense of social economy development fail to guarantee the sustainable development of water resources and social economy.In contrast,under the comprehensive and coordinated development mode,the chemical oxygen demand(COD)emissions will remain at a low level of 132900 t by 2035 while economic development rises to a relatively high level,with GDP reaching 1197.13 billion CNY.It follows that this mode not only ensures economic development but also takes into account the ecological environment.Therefore,the comprehensive and coordinated development scenario that comprehensively considers social economy development,environmental protection,and other factors is the optimal sustainable development mode that can be carried by water resources.
作者
王宵君
杨欢
李桢萍
严文凤
蓝四娇
杜超
WANG Xiaojun;YANG Huan;LI Zhenping;YAN Wenfeng;LAN Sijiao;DU Chao(School of Geography and Environmental Engineering,Gannan Normal University,Ganzhou 341000,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2022年第4期9-16,62,共9页
Pearl River
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41907331)
赣南师范大学大学生创新训练计划项目(S202010418006)。
关键词
水资源
承载力
系统动力学模型
情景模拟
赣州
water resource
carrying capacity
system dynamics model
scenario simulation
Ganzhou
