摘要
刺果瓜是一种入侵杂草,具有侵略的蔓延习性,可侵染多种作物,包括玉米、大豆等,入侵后可导致严重减产并增加管理成本。利用生态位模型和地理信息系统预测现代和未来气候背景下,刺果瓜在辽宁省的潜在分布格局,运用遥感数据提取刺果瓜在辽宁省高适生区的玉米分布情况并计算农业经济损失,为相关部门更精准的监测和治理刺果瓜在辽宁省的扩散提供理论依据。研究结果表明:现代气候背景下,刺果瓜在辽宁省的高适生区面积为6.07×10^(4)km^(2),占辽宁省总土地面积的39%,中适生区面积为3.97×10^(4)km^(2),占辽宁省总土地面积的28%,低适生区面积为4.26×10^(4)km^(2),占辽宁省总土地面积的26%。气候变化背景下,刺果瓜在辽宁省的入侵范围将显著增加,几乎扩展为全区域适生,最适宜区域的重心在未来呈现向高纬度和西北方向转移的变化趋势。影响刺果瓜分布的主要环境因子为年降雨量、年平均气温、太阳辐射(1,2,8月)、海拔、土壤酸碱度、土壤基本饱和度、温度年较差,高程和土壤因子对模型的贡献率明显小于气候因子,降雨和温度是影响刺果瓜分布的重要环境因素。刺果瓜在高适生区入侵10%玉米田面积基础上,可能对辽宁省造成的经济损失高达4.3亿元,应在辽宁省范围内开展日常监测,重点对辽南和辽东的玉米种植区进行普查。
Sicyos angulatus is an invasive weed with aggressive spreading habit.It can infect a variety of crops,including corn and soybean.After invasion,it can lead to serious decrease of yield and increase of management cost.The potential distribution pattern of thorn melon in Liaoning Province in the context of present and future climate is predicted with Niche model and GIS.The corn distribution of Sicyos angulatus in the high fitness area of Liaoning Province is extracted based on remote sensing data,and the agricultural economic loss is worked out,to provide a theoretical basis for accurate monitor and control of the spread of Sicyos angulatus in Liaoning Province.The results show that,under present climate,the high fitness area of Sicyos angulatus in Liaoning Province is 6.07×10^(4)km^(2),accounting for about 39%of the total land area of Liaoning Province,and the area of moderately suitable area is 3.97×10^(4)km^(2),accounting for about 28%of the total land area of Liaoning Province,and the area of low suitable area is 4.26×10^(4)km^(2),accounting for about 26%of the total land area of Liaoning Province.In the context of climate change,the invasion scope of Sicyos angulatus in Liaoning Province will increase significantly and almost expand to the whole region.The center of the most suitable region will shift to high latitude and northwest in the future.The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of Sicyos angulatus are annual rainfall,annual average temperature,solar radiation(January,February and August),altitude,soil pH,soil basic saturation and annual temperature range.The contribution of elevation and soil factors to the model is significantly less than climate factors.Rainfall and temperature are important environmental factors affecting the distribution of Sicyos angulatus.The invasion of 10%corn field area by Sicyos angulatus in high fitness area may cause economic losses up to RMB 430 million in Liaoning Province.Daily monitoring should be carried out throughout the province,focusing on the general survey of corn planting areas in southern and Eastern Liaoning.
作者
何莉莉
刘金昌
陈柏
HE Li-li;LIU Jin-chang;CHEN Bai(Rural Energy and Environmental Protection Department,Liaoning Agricultural Development Service Center,Shengyang 110000,China)
出处
《沈阳农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第1期119-127,共9页
Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University
基金
辽宁省科技厅农业攻关及产业化指导计划项目(2019JH8/10200017)
国家重点研发计划子课题项目(2017YFD0201805)。
