摘要
2022年以来,疫情持续叠加地缘政治冲突,全球经济复苏减速降档,滞胀程度加深。俄乌冲突与美欧对俄制裁,对全球经济、金融、能源、粮食安全产生广泛影响。美联储收紧货币政策,将产生广泛负面溢出效应。2022年第一季度中国经济增长仍处于恢复过程,新外生因素压低增长预期;就业整体呈弱修复态势,不平衡不充分特征持续;物价分化走势有所收敛,输入性通胀压力趋增;外贸外资合作维持稳定,出口和利用外资增长再超预期;财政收支继续恢复,地方财政收入分化明显;实体经济融资需求依然偏弱,金融市场波动加大。当前需要重点关注如下问题:俄乌冲突加剧,对我国经济产生多种外溢效应;美联储收紧货币政策,对我国形成政策掣肘;输入性通胀冲击加剧,产业链供应链稳定面临较大挑战;国内多地疫情反弹,对内需特别是消费压制明显;就业总量压力与结构性矛盾交织,民生领域补短板强弱项任务艰巨;房地产市场风险仍在暴露,金融市场震荡加大;预期转弱压力持续,尚未得到根本扭转。展望全年,在需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱背景下,稳增长、稳就业和稳物价都面临较大压力。建议以我为主实施宏观政策,防范外部风险对中国的溢出效应;积极主动应对输入性通胀,巩固保供稳价政策成果;科学精准高效处置突发疫情,保持经济运行在合理区间;围绕扩就业保民生落实宏观政策,更加突出精准有效;稳妥处置房企风险,防范金融市场震荡;加快扭转预期冲击,切实增强市场主体信心。
In 2022,the global economic recovery has slowed down due to the continuing epidemic and the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,and the degree of stagflation has been deepening.The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on Russia have left a wide range of impacts on the global economy,finance,energy and food security.The tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve will have extensively negative spillover effects.In the first quarter in 2022,China's economic growth is still in the process of recovery,while new exogenous factors depress growth expectations;employment as a whole shows a weak repair trend,and the characteristics of imbalance and insufficiency continue;the trend of price differentiation has converged,and the pressure of imported inflation has increased;foreign trade and foreign investment cooperation remains stable,and the growth of export and utilization of foreign investment exceeds expectations again;the fiscal revenue and expenditure is continuing to recover,and the local fiscal revenue differentiation is obvious;the financing demand of the real economy is still weak,and the volatility of the financial market is increasing.China needs to pay more attention to:the current economic spillover effect of Russia-Ukraine conflict;the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve which has formed policy constraints on China;the impact of imported inflation intensifies,and the stability of industrial chain and supply chain faces great challenges;the epidemic situation has rebounded in many places in China,which has significantly suppressed domestic demand,especially consumption;the pressure of total employment is intertwined with structural contradictions,and the task of making up for weaknesses in the field of people's livelihood is arduous;the real estate market risk is still exposed,and the financial market shock is increasing;the expected weakening pressure continues and has not been fundamentally reversed.Looking forward to the whole year,under the background of shrinking demand,supply shock and weakening expectations,stabilizing growth,employment and prices are facing great pressure.It is suggested that to implement macro policies independently to prevent the spillover effect of external risks on China;actively respond to imported inflation and consolidate the achievements of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices;scientifically,accurately and efficiently deal with sudden outbreaks and keep the economic operation within a reasonable range;implement macro policies around expanding employment and ensuring people's livelihood,and make them more prominent,accurate and effective;properly handle the risks of real estate enterprises and prevent financial market shocks;accelerate the reversal of expected shocks and effectively enhance the confidence of market participants.
出处
《改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期1-11,共11页
Reform
关键词
宏观经济
外部风险
高质量发展
macro-economy
external risk
high-quality development
