摘要
“30·60”碳达峰、碳中和目标背景下探讨碳排放问题具有重要的理论和现实意义。利用碳排放系数法和STIRPAT模型、Tapio脱钩模型,基于2000—2019年面板数据测算了我国31个省(市、区)农业碳排放量,旨在摸清我国省域农业碳排放的时空变化规律,探究农业碳排放的驱动因素,找到农业减排路径。结果表明:(1)我国农业碳排放量从2000年的27795.18万t增长到2019年的28396.16万t,增长2.16%;(2)得益于农业生产能力以及资源利用率的提高,农业碳排放强度下降大,从2000年到2019年,下降了79.47%;(3)第一产业从业人数、城镇化率、农业技术水平以及农业人均GDP对农业碳排放量有显著影响;(4)2001—2019年,我国农业碳排放总量与农业经济增长之间的脱钩关系以弱脱钩和强脱钩为主,并从弱脱钩逐渐向强脱钩转变。
It is of great theoretical and practical significance to discuss the issue of carbon emission under the background of"30•60"carbon peak and carbon neutral target.Using Carbon emission factor method,STIRPAT model,Tapio decoupling model,and panel data from 2000 to 2019,this paper estimated agricultural carbon emissions of 31 provinces in China,aiming to understand the spatio-temporal variation of agricultural carbon emissions at provincial level,explore the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions,and find ways to reduce agricultural carbon emission.The results show that:(1)China′s agricultural carbon emissions increased from 277951800 tons in 2000 to 283961600 tons in 2019,an increase of 2.16%;(2)Due to the improvement of agricultural production capacity and resource utilization,agricultural carbon emission intensity decreased greatly.From 2000 to 2019,there was a drop of 79.47%;(3)The number of primary industry employees,urbanization rate,agricultural technology level and agricultural per capita GDP have a significant impact on agricultural carbon emissions;(4)From 2001 to 2019,the decoupling relationship between total agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth in China mainly includes weak decoupling and strong decoupling,gradually going from weak decoupling to strong decoupling.
作者
郭险峰
艾静静
GUO Xianfeng;AI Jingjing(Party School of the Sichuan Provincial Committee of CPC,Chengdu,Sichuan 610071,China)
出处
《西昌学院学报（自然科学版）》
2022年第1期9-15,22,共8页
Journal of Xichang University(Natural Science Edition)
