摘要
近年来,在人口老龄化程度不断加深的同时,劳动力供给数量和质量的变动对于经济增长产生了重要影响。文章基于经济增长理论,通过理论模型推导,将人口老龄化对经济增长的影响分解为劳动生产率、人均工资水平、就业率和劳动年龄人口比重等四种中介路径。在此基础上利用2005—2019年我国省级面板数据进行分析,研究发现:整体来看,人口老龄化与经济增长呈显著的负相关关系;指标分解来看,构成有效劳动投入的四个组成因素均对我国经济增长产生正向影响,而人口老龄化对人均工资水平和劳动年龄人口比重产生了显著的负向影响,对劳动生产率和就业率产生了显著的正向影响,但负向影响大于正向影响;分区域来看,区域异质性检验和稳健性检验的结果进一步证明了上述结论。针对研究结论,提出加大人力资本投入、调整就业政策等建议,以缓解人口老龄化对经济增长的影响。
In recent years,with the deepening of population aging,the changes in the quantity and quality of labor supply have had an important impact on economic growth.Based on the economic growth theory and theoretical model derivation,this paper decomposes the impact of population aging on economic growth into four intermediary paths:labor productivity,per capita wage level,employment rate,and the proportion of working age population.On this basis,the provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2019 are used for analysis.The study finds that on the whole,there is a significant negative correlation between population aging and economic growth;from the perspective of batch standard decomposition,the four components of effective labor input have a positive impact on China's economic growth,while population aging has a significant negative impact on the per capita wage level and the proportion of working age population,and has a signifi⁃cant positive impact on labor productivity and employment rate,but the negative impact is greater than the positive im⁃pact;the results of regional heterogeneity test and robustness test further prove the above conclusions.According to the re⁃search conclusions,this paper puts forward suggestions such as increasing human capital investment and adjusting em⁃ployment,policy so as to alleviate the impact of population aging on economic growth.
作者
俞会新
吕龙风
卢童
YU Huixin;Lü Longfeng;LU Tong(School of Economics and Management,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China)
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第5期96-104,共9页
East China Economic Management
基金
河北省教育厅人文社会科学重大基金项目“人口老龄化背景下生产性养老模式研究”(ZD202021)
河北省人力资源和社会保障研究课题“新时代背景下养老服务人才培养研究”(JRSHZ-2021-01050)。
关键词
人口老龄化
有效劳动投入
经济增长
population aging
effective labor input
economic growth
