摘要
在要素市场化改革进程中正确看待汇率波动问题已经成为高质量发展时期优化资源配置的关键。基于2000—2009年中国工业企业数据库、海关贸易数据库以及2000—2018年IFS人民币双边汇率数据,构建细分制造业实际有效汇率波动指数,检验汇率波动对资源配置扭曲指标“生产率离散度”的影响及作用机制。研究表明:(1)实际有效汇率波动增大会显著降低行业内企业的生产率离散度,从而改善行业资源配置效率;(2)实际有效汇率波动显著地通过企业的进入退出效应和贸易传递效应对行业生产率离散度产生影响;(3)劳动密集型和资本密集型行业的生产率离散度对实际汇率波动的敏感度更高,外资企业占比更高的行业亦表现出类似特征;(4)实际有效汇率波动与行业的生产率离散度之间存在显著的“U”型关系,但人民币汇率波动水平当前仍处于效率改善区间。
A correct view of exchange rate fluctuations in the reform process of factor marketization has become the key to optimizing resource allocation during the period of high-quality development.Based on the 2000—2009 industrial enterprise database,customs trade database,and 2000—2018 IFS bilateral RMB exchange rate data,this paper constructs a subdivided manufacturing real effective exchange rate volatility index to test the impact of exchange rate volatility on the resource allocation distortion indicator“productivity dispersion”and its mechanism.Research shows the following:(1)Increased real effective exchange rate fluctuations will significantly reduce productivity dispersion of enterprises in the industry,thereby improving the efficiency of manufacturing resource allocation.(2)Real exchange rate fluctuations significantly affect the industry productivity dispersion through entry and exit effects of enterprises and trade transfer effect.(3)The productivity dispersion of labor-intensive and capital-intensive industries is more sensitive to real exchange rate fluctuations,and industries with a higher proportion of foreign-funded enterprises also exhibit similar characteristics.(4)There is a significant“U”-shaped relationship between real exchange rate fluctuations and productivity dispersion,but the exchange rate is still in the efficiency improvement range.
作者
李晓静
张莹
刘成
LI Xiaojing;ZHANG Ying;LIU Cheng(Shanghai Development Research Institute, Shanghai Party Institute of CPC, Shanghai 200233, China;School of Economics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China;Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Science, Beijing 100732, China;Business School, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China)
出处
《南京财经大学学报》
CSSCI
2022年第2期97-108,共12页
Journal of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目“开放资本账户、实际汇率重调与经济增长:基于动态CGE模型的研究”(71603275)
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“中国对‘一带一路’国家的出口机遇识别与贸易促进研究”(20YJC790024)。
关键词
人民币实际有效汇率
汇率波动
生产率分布
资源配置效率
RMB real effective exchange rate
exchange rate fluctuation
productivitydispersion
resource allocation efficiency
