摘要
为实现高校EPC工程招标采购风险因素定量化分析,梳理了高校EPC工程招标采购风险指标体系,包含招标采购准备期、招标采购实施期、签订合同及执行期3个阶段共20个风险因素。采用德尔菲法确定风险因素的初始概率,基于各风险因素间的相互作用,构建交叉影响概率,引入马尔科夫链的稳态特性计算校正概率。计算结果明确了高校EPC工程招标采购风险因素排查和管控重点,可为高校选择高质量的EPC总承包商和工程招标采购内控建设提供参考。
In order to realize the quantitative analysis of the risk factors of EPC project bidding and procurement in colleges and universities,the risk index system of EPC project bidding and procurement in colleges and universities is sorted out,including 20 risk factors in three stages:bidding and procurement preparation period,bidding and procurement implementation period,contract signing and execution period.The initial probability of risk factors is determined by the Delphi method,the cross-influence probability is constructed based on the interaction between the risk factors,and the steady-state characteristics of the Markov chain are introduced to calculate the correction probability.The calculation results clarified the key points of investigation and control of risk factors of EPC project bidding and procurement in colleges and universities,which can provide reference for colleges and universities to select high-quality EPC general contractors and internal control construction of project bidding and procurement.
作者
朱瑕
王升
ZHU Xia;WANG Sheng(Procurement and Bidding Center,Zhejiang A&F University,Hangzhou 310000,China)
出处
《实验技术与管理》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第4期249-254,共6页
Experimental Technology and Management
