摘要
中亚天然气管道是中国重要的陆上能源通道。在近年的冬季保供期间,中亚进口气各气源国、过境国的供气量与下载气量受本国气温变化影响波动较大,常导致转供中国气量发生计划外、无预警降量,无法提前采取措施加以应对,影响中国在冬季保供期间的资源保障能力。针对该问题,对冬季保供期间影响供气量、下载气量因素的历史数据进行分析与评价,量化各因素间的相关性,建立以中亚进口气气源国、过境国气温为自变量的数学预测模型,以预测中亚进口气转供中国气量的变化趋势。将模型预测结果与实际转供气量进行对比,证明模型具有较高的预测精度。预测结果可为应急资源的及时筹措提供支持,有利于有效把控运行调整最优窗口期,减少工况调整滞后造成的能耗损失。
The Trans-Asia Gas Pipeline is an important onshore energy corridor for China.In the recent winters requiring stable supply,the supply and download volumes of the imported Central Asian gas in the gas source and transit countries fluctuate greatly due to the influence of temperature change,which often leads to the unplanned and unexpected reduction of gas transferred to China.In this case,no measure can be taken in advance,thus affecting China’s capacity to ensure the stable supply of gas in winter.In order to solve this problem,the historical data of the factors affecting the supply and download volumes of gas in winters requiring stable supply were analyzed and evaluated,the correlation between the factors was quantified,and a mathematical prediction model with the temperature of the gas source and transit countries of imported Central Asian gas as the independent variable was established to predict the change trend of Central Asian gas transferred to China.In addition,the model is verified to be accurate by comparing the model prediction results with the actual gas volume,and the prediction results could provide support for timely raising of emergency resources in China,which is conductive to effectively controlling the operation and adjusting optimal window period,so as to avoid the loss of energy consumption caused by delayed adjustment of working conditions.
作者
邓琳纳
丁祎
武庆国
周翔
向奕帆
杨金威
DENG Linna;DING Yi;WU Qingguo;ZHOU Xiang;XIANG Yifan;YANG Jinwei(SINO-Pipeline International Company Limited;School of Petroleum Engineering,Northeast Petroleum University)
出处
《油气储运》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第3期354-360,共7页
Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation
基金
中油国际管道公司科技项目“中亚天然气管道进口气量预测技术服务”,ZYGJ-2020-HT-FW-1。
关键词
中亚进口天然气
输量
气温
相关性
预测
imported Central Asian gas
throughput
temperature
correlation
prediction
