摘要
植被覆盖变化是评估生态效应与治理成效的关键性因素之一。基于洞庭湖流域2000—2019年MODISNDVI和同期气温、降水、土地利用等相关数据,运用Sen+Mann-Kendall、Hurst指数、偏相关分析、残差分析等多种方法,全面分析了流域植被覆盖时空演化与未来变化趋势,主要结论如下:(1)年际变化上,流域生长季NVDI呈分阶段波动上升趋势,植被覆盖显著增加。(2)空间分布上,流域大部分区域植被覆盖状况良好,呈“西高东低”分布特征;但未来流域大部区域植被NDVI可能呈增长放缓或退化趋势。(3)气候影响因素上,流域生长季NDVI与降水和气温变化均呈正相关,但气温对植被生长的正向促进作用强于降水。(4)人类影响因素上,农业生产与生态工程建设对流域植被变化具有正面效应;土地利用变化对流域植被变化具有双重影响作用;城市扩张则是导致NDVI减少的主要因素之一。未来流域生态治理范围应重点关注残差呈持续减少特征的湖区沿线、经济较发达区域以及已建成经济区的周边扩展区域,构建“有为政府、有效市场、有机社会”三位一体的生态协同治理新格局。
Vegetation cover change is one of the key factors to evaluate ecological effect and governance effect.Based on the NDVI data of the Dongting Lake basin from 2000 to 2019,and combined with the temperature,precipitation and land data of the same period,The research uses the methods of Sen+Mann-Kendall,Hurst index,partial correlation analysis,residual analysis methods together to analyze the characteristics of spatio-temporal changes and future trends of vegetation cover in Dongting Lake basin.The main conclusions are as follows:1) In terms of time scale,NDVI in Dongting Lake basin shows a fluctuating growth trend from April to October,and the vegetation coverage is improved significantly.2) In terms of spatial distribution,the pattern of vegetation coverage appears as characteristics of "higher value in the west of Dongting Lake basin and low value in the east".In the future,vegetation NDVI changes in most regions may show a slowing growth trend or a degrading trend.3) In terms of climate factors,the NDVI is positively correlated with changes in precipitation and temperature,but the positive effect of temperature is stronger than precipitation.4) In terms of human factors,agricultural production and ecological engineering construction have the positive effects on vegetation changes.Land use change has the dual effects on vegetation cover.Urban expansion is one of the main factors leading to the reduction of NDVI.In the future,the scope of ecological governance areas should focus on the areas along the Dongting Lake,the economically developed areas,and the surrounding expansion areas of established economic zones where it has the characteristics of continuous reduction in residuals,in order to build a new pattern of ecological coordination governance with a trinity of "effective government,effective market,and organic society".
作者
孙颖
易浪
尹少华
SUN Ying;YI Lang;YIN Shaohua(College of Life Science and Technology,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha 410004,Hunan,China;Hunan Institute of Economic Geography,Hunan University of Finance and Economic,Changsha 410205,Hunan,China;School of Business,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha 410004,Hunan,China)
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第4期190-201,共12页
Economic Geography
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(19BJY045)
湖南省教育厅科学研究项目(21B0258)。
关键词
洞庭湖流域
植被覆盖变化
驱动因素
协同治理
生态工程
Dongting Lake basin
vegetation cover change
driving factors
coordination governance
ecological project
