摘要
本文基于省际面板数据,在对全国物流业发展水平的空间相关性及空间集群检测的基础上,探析了通讯基础设施对物流业的空间溢出机制,并构建动态双固定效应空间杜宾模型实证估计了通讯基础设施对物流业的空间溢出效应。研究结果发现:(1)我国物流业存在稳定的空间集聚特点与正向空间溢出效应,且空间集群检测表明全国物流业发展存在显著的空间异质性与持续性的特征,北京、天津、江苏、浙江等发达地区始终处于HH类型,始终处于LL类型的地区大多是中西部地区。(2)动态双固定效应空间杜宾模型估计发现电话普及率与互联网普及率均在10%显著性水平上对物流业发展有明显的空间溢出效应,并运用偏微分法研究发现两者也均在10%显著性水平上对物流业发展有显著的短期溢出效应。据此表明,通讯基础设施对物流业存在空间溢出效应,且其对物流业主要呈现出显著的短期溢出效应。(3)分地区估计发现通讯基础设施对物流业的溢出效应有明显的地区异质性,表现在东部地区通讯基础设施短期与长期均存在显著的正向溢出效应,而中西部地区只有电话存在显著的短期溢出效应。据此,在“新基建”战略推进期提出驱动通讯基础设施健康发展的治理路径,以促进物流业进一步优化升级。
On the basis of testing the spatial correlation and spatial cluster of the development level of logistics industry in China,based on the inter-provincial panel data,this paper probes into the spatial spillover mechanism of communication infrastructure to logistics industry,and constructs a dynamic double fixed effect spatial durbin model to empirically estimate the spatial spillover effects of communication infrastructure on logistics industry.The research finds that:(1)China's logistics industry has stable spatial agglomeration characteristics and positive spatial spillover effects.And the spatial cluster detection shows that there are the characteristics of significant spatial heterogeneity and persistence in the development of logistics industry,Which are that Beijing,Tianjin,Jiangsu and other developed areas have always been in the HH type,and most of the areas that have always been in the LL type are the central and western regions.(2)The estimation results of dynamic double fixed effect spatial durbin model show that the telephone penetration rate and Internet penetration rate have an obvious space spillover effect on the logistics industry development at 10%significance level,and the result of estimation by partial differential method is that the telephone penetration rate and Internet penetration rate have an significant short-term space spillover effect on the logistics industry development at 10%significance level.Accordingly,it shows that the communication infrastructure has a space spillover effect on the logistics industry,and it mainly presents a significant short-term spillover effect on the logistics industry.(3)It is found by subregional estimates that the spillover effect of communication infrastructure on the logistics industry has obvious regional heterogeneity,which shows that there are significant positive spillover effects on both the short-and long-term communication infrastructure in the eastern region,while only the telephone has significant short-term spillover effects in the central and western regions.According to the above research,this paper puts forward the governance paths that drive the healthy development of communication infrastructure during the strategic advance period of"New Infrastructure",so as to promote the further optimization and upgrading of logistics industry.
作者
陈治国
辛冲冲
ZHIGUO CHEN;CHONGCHONG XIN(College of Economics and Management,Xianyang Normal University;Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,National Academy of Economy Strategy)
出处
《工信财经科技》
2022年第2期102-123,共22页
Review of Financial & Technological Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“区域果蔬外贸冷链物流模式及其机制创新研究”(71562033)。
关键词
通讯基础设施
物流业
空间溢出机制
空间溢出效应
动态空间杜宾模型
communication infrastructure
logistics industry
spatial spillover mechanism
spatial spillover effect
dynamic spatial durbin model
