摘要
基于岷江流域内50个气象站点1956—2020年的日降水量数据,运用线性趋势分析、累积距平检验和滑动t检验对岷江流域年降水量和最大季降水量进行趋势变化分析及突变检验,揭示了岷江流域及各流域单元区降水量时空变化特征。结果表明:岷江流域1956—2020年的年降水量以1.028 mm/10a的微小变化率逐年增加,且呈现出自西北高原地区向东南盆地递增的空间分布格局;岷江流域上游地区年降水量整体上以11.711 mm/10a的速率逐年增加,这一增长趋势在2017年后变得尤为显著。岷江流域中、下游地区降水量变化趋势基本一致,自20世纪60年代以来均长期保持下降趋势,降水量突变也发生在这一时期。研究结果对深入了解岷江流域降水时空变化特征,制定洪涝灾害应对措施和合理利用流域内的水资源具有借鉴意义。
On the basis of the daily precipitation data of 50 meteorological stations in the Minjiang River Basin from 1956 to 2020,this paper conducts the trend change analysis and mutation test on annual and maximum seasonal precipitation by using the linear trend analysis,cumulative departure test,and sliding t-test.It reveals the temporal and spatial change of precipitation in the Minjiang River Basin and each component of the basin.The results indicate that the annual precipitation in the Minjiang River Basin inches up year by year with a slight change rate of 1.028 mm/10 a from 1956 to 2020 and shows an increasing spatial distribution pattern from the northwest plateau to the southeast basin.The annual precipitation in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River Basin increases year by year at a rate of 11.711 mm/10 a,presenting a significant rising tendency after 2017.The variation trends of precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Minjiang River Basin share a similar declining trend for a long time since the 1960 s,with sudden changes in precipitation also occurring during this period.This paper seeks to provide references for understanding the temporal and spatial change of precipitation in the Minjiang River Basin and stipulating response measures for flood disasters and rational utilization of water resources in the basin.
作者
杜聪
李洪
由丽华
宋文武
马龙伟
DU Cong;LI Hong;YOU Lihua;SONG Wenwu;MA Longwei(School of Energy and Power Engineering,Xihua University,Chengdu 610039,China;Sichuan Province Zipingpu Development Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610091,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2022年第5期145-153,共9页
Pearl River
关键词
降水量
时空变化
趋势分析
突变检验
岷江流域
precipitation
temporal and spatial variation
trend analysis
mutation test
Minjiang River Basin
