摘要
根据西充国家气象观测站1959—2020年的气温、降雨量、日照等气象资料,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall突变检验、滑动t检验等方法,对西充地区60多年来的气温、降水和日照等气候变化特征进行了研究。结果得出:(1)西充地区的年平均气温整体呈小幅度上升趋势,1959—2020年变化率为0.033℃/10 a;年总降雨量整体呈小幅度上升趋势,1959—2020年变化率为0.088 mm/10 a;年日照时数呈显著的下降趋势,日照变化率为-4.76 h/10 a;(2)由M-K检验可以得知,西充地区年平均气温在1959年、1963年、2012年、2013年、2018年确实发生了突变现象;由滑动t检验得知,西充地区年平均气温确实在2012年发生了增强的突变;由M-K检验和滑动t检验可以得知,西充地区的年降雨量在1992年前后有一次突变现象;由M-K检验可以得知,西充地区的年日照时数在2002年有一次突变现象;由滑动t检验得知,在2002年发生了减弱的突变。
Based on the temperature,rainfall,sunshine and other meteorological data of Xichong National General Meteorological Station since its establishment in 1959 to 2020,this paper adopted linear trend estimation,Mann-Kendall mutation test,and sliding t-test.The characteristics of climate change such as temperature,precipitation and sunshine have been studied.The results were as follows:(1)The annual average temperature in Xichong area showed a slight upward trend,with a change rate of 0.033℃/10 a from 1959 to 2020;the total annual rainfall showed a slight upward trend,with a change rate of 0.088 mm/10 a;the annual sunshine hours showed a significant downward trend,and the sunshine change rate was-4.76 h/10 a;(2)The MK test showed that the annual average temperature in Xichong was in 1959,1963,2012,2013、A sudden change occurred in 2018.The sliding t test showed that the annual average temperature of Xichong did have an enhanced abrupt change in 2012;the M-K test and sliding t-test show that the annual rainfall in Xichong was around 1992.There was a sudden change;according to the M-K test,the annual sunshine hours of Xichong had a sudden change in 2002.According to the sliding t-test,a weakening mutation occurred in 2002.
作者
饶智杰
廖文超
周子钦
刁华鑫
刘爽
户晓琴
RAO Zhijie(Xichong Meteorological Bureau,Xichong,Sichuan 637200)
出处
《农业灾害研究》
2022年第3期149-151,共3页
Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology
关键词
气温
降雨量
日照
气候变化
Temperature
Rainfall
Sunshine
Climate change
