摘要
我国提出力争于2030年前实现二氧化碳排放达峰,电力行业作为碳排放重点部门是实现碳达峰目标最为重要的一环。综合考虑减排目标、电力需求、资源部署的不确定性,设计了多种组合情景来探讨未来电力低碳转型的可行方案。结果表明:多源协同的加速电气化路径通过大力发展新能源、深度挖掘大型可控型电源开发潜力,可在2025年使得煤电发电量不超过5.23万亿kWh、电力行业(含供热)碳排放峰值控制在50.5亿t以内,并确保电力供应的安全可靠。最后,提出了推动电力部门安全高效实现碳达峰的相关建议。
China proposes to strive to achieve the peak of carbon dioxide emissions before 2030.As a key sector of carbon emissions,the power industry is the most important part of achieving the goal of peaking carbon emissions.Taking into account the uncertainty of emission reduction targets,electricity demand,and resource deployment,a variety of combined scenarios are designed to explore feasible solutions for the low-carbon transformation of electricity in the future.The results show that the multi-source coordinated accelerated electrification path can make coal power generation less than 5.23 trillion kwh in 2025,and the power industry(including heating)carbon emissions by vigorously developing new energy and deeply tapping the development potential of large-scale controllable power sources.The peak emission is controlled within 5.05 billion tons,and the safe and reliable power supply is ensured.Finally,this paper proposes relevant recommendations to promote the safe and efficient carbon peaking in the power sector.
作者
袁家海
苗若兰
Yuan Jiahai;Miao Ruolan(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《煤炭经济研究》
2021年第12期46-53,共8页
Coal Economic Research
基金
国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(72173043)。
关键词
碳达峰
电力行业
低碳转型
多源协调
carbon peaking
power industry
low-carbon transition
multi-source coordination
