摘要
利用2001—2020年河北省142个国家气象站逐日最大风速资料分析了近20年河北风速变化背景。择选2021年2—5月张家口、崇礼区域日极大风速13.9 m/s以上、日10 min平均风速最大值8 m/s以上的30个代表日,运用张承高速公路沿线崇礼国家气象站、南窝铺及场地2套区域气象站、高家营及西湾子2套交通气象站的逐分钟风向风速观测资料,ECMWF数值模式输出的地面10 m风预报资料,以及3″分辨率的SRTM3地形资料,应用Meteodyn WT模型对张承高速公路沿线2个解域区域内的风预报结果进行了订正和检验。结果表明:WT模型输出风速与实际观测风速相关系数可达0.6225并通过0.001显著性检验,各代表站模拟的结果与实况的误差80%以上在±2 m/s之间,地形开阔处误差明显减小;风向也表现出很高的一致性。说明应用WT模型对山区高速公路沿线风数值预报进行订正是可行的,各地可结合本地地形数据以及相对稳定可靠的风的数值预报产品作为WT模型的驱动数据源,开展本地山区高速公路沿线风的订正应用。
Using the maximum wind speed data of 142 national meteorological stations in Hebei Province from 2001 to 2020, this paper analyzes the background of wind speed change in Hebei Province in recent 20 years. We select 30 representative days from February to May in 2021 with a daily extreme wind speed over 13.9 m/s and the daily 10-min average maximum wind speed over 8 m/s. Using the wind observation data of the meteorological stations in Chongli, Nanwopu, Changdi, Gaojiaying and Xiwanzi, the ground 10 m wind forecast data in the corresponding period of time output by ECMWF model, and the SRTM3 terrain data with 3″ resolution, the wind forecast results along the Zhangcheng Expressway in two regions of Chongli mountain area are simulated and verified by using the WT model. It is found that the correlation coefficient of wind speed of the WT model with actual observation reaches 0.6225 and passes the significance test. The error of more than 80% of the samples between simulation results and the actual situation is controlled within ±2 m/s. The error of the open terrain is obviously small. The wind direction also shows high consistency. It is proved that using the WT model to revise the wind numerical forecast along the mountain expressway is feasible. The local terrain data and the relatively stable and reliable wind numerical forecast products can be used to drive the WT model to carry out the revision application of winds along the highway in mountainous areas.
作者
曲晓黎
张杏敏
尤琦
张中杰
吴丹
QU Xiaoli;ZHANG Xingmin;YOU Qi;ZHANG Zhongjie;WU Dan(Hebei Province Meteorological Service Centre,Shijiazhuang 050021;Key Laboratory of Weather and Me,teorological and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021;Key Labortary of Transportation Meteorology,CMA,Nanjing 210041;Meteorological Institute of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021)
出处
《气象科技》
2022年第2期267-272,共6页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
河北省省级科技计划“高速公路复杂路面高分辨率恶劣天气精准预警技术研究”(19275413D)资助。
关键词
WT模型
风
高速公路
数值预报订正
WT model
wind
expressway
numerical forecast correction
