摘要
利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP1°×1°再分析资料、ECMWF细网格数值预报产品24~48 h预报资料,对2016—2020年影响山东地区的23次气旋过程的系统及降水量进行主、客观分析检验,结果表明:(1)EC产品对西风槽的移速和强度的预报效果相对较好,预报准确率在78%以上。(2)EC产品对低空低涡切变线的预报能在一定程度上反映系统的演变和移动过程,且随着预报时效的缩短,预报准确率提高。(3)EC产品对低空急流和超低空急流最大风速和急流范围的预报准确率并不高,且误差均以偏大为主。(4)EC产品对气旋中心位置和强度的预报准确率不高。(5)EC产品预报的降水量最大值一般小于实况,对气旋最大降水量级的方位预报准确率不高,误差以偏西、偏北为主。
Based on the conventional observation data, NCEP1 °×1 ° reanalysis data, and 24—48 h forecast data of ECMWFThin products(EC products), analysis the system and precipitation of the 23 cyclones affecting Shandong from 2016 to 2020subjectively and objectively.The results show that:(1)EC products have relatively good forecasting effects on the speed and intensity of the west wind trough, and the forecast accuracy rate is above 78%.(2)The prediction of the low vor,tex and shear line of EC products can reflect the evolution and movement of the system to a certain extent, and the accuracy of the forecast is improved with the shortening of the forecast time.(3)EC products are not accurate in forecasting the maximum wind speed and jet range of low level jet, and the errors are mainly large.(4)EC products do not have a high accuracy in predicting the central location and intensity of cyclones.(5)The maximum precipitation predicted by EC products is generally less than the actual situation, and the accuracy of the azimuth forecast of the maximum precipitation of the cyclone is not high, and the error is mainly north-west.
作者
丁凡
Ding Fan(Rizhao Meteorological Observatory,Shandong Rizhao 276800)
出处
《内蒙古气象》
2021年第5期9-12,共4页
Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia
关键词
EC产品
检验
气旋
EC products
Inspection
Cyclone
