摘要
利用1992-2019年31个省份的经济统计数据,使用空间横截面和空间动态面板数据模型探讨中国地区差距的变化趋势及成因。研究结果表明,样本期间内,中国全域经济存在省际的条件β收敛,从演进过程来看,呈现出发散-收敛的特征;但南北地区间则经历了不存在俱乐部收敛到存在俱乐部收敛的过程,主要表现为北方收敛、南方分化。全样本回归结果表明,产业结构冲击显著扩大了地区间差距,而产业结构转型的作用则比较模糊,且二者的作用在分时期和南北地区之间存在异质性。新一轮南北差距主要是由北方经济结构性减速和产业缺乏韧性所致。基于研究结论,提出缩小南北差距应当积极推动生产性服务业的发展和提高区域产业韧性。
Based on the economic statistics of 31 provinces from 1992 to 2019,this paper uses spatial cross-sectional data and spatial dynamic panel data to explore the changing trend and the causes of regional disparities in China.The results show that during the sample period,the economy of China as a whole has inter-provincial conditionalβconvergence.From the perspective of the evolution process,it shows the characteristics of dispersion-convergence.The north and the south has experienced the process from no club convergence to club convergence,which is mainly manifested as convergence in the north and differentiation in the south.The full sample regression results show that the impact of industrial structure significantly enlarges the gap between regions,while the role of industrial structure transformation is relatively vague,and the roles of the two variables have heterogeneity in different periods and between north-south regions.The new round of the North-South gap is mainly due to the structural slowdown of the economy and the lack of industrial resilience in the north.Based on the research conclusions,this paper puts forward that narrowing the gap between the north and the south should actively promote the development of producer services and improve regional industrial resilience.
作者
王磊
李峰波
马新宇
WANG Lei;LI Feng-bo;MA Xin-yu(Institute of Central China Development,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)
出处
《云南财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第5期1-15,共15页
Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“新时代促进区域协调发展的利益补偿机制研究”(18ZDA040)
教育部人文社会科学规划基金“消费流视角下长江中游城市群的网络演化、驱动因素与经济绩效研究”(19YJA630079)。
关键词
南北差距
结构冲击
结构转换
空间计量模型
The“North-South Gap”
Structural Shock
Structure Transformation
Spatial Econometric Model
